남한 극한강수사상의 특성과 변화, 1954~2010년 -규모, 발생빈도, 강수량 기여비율을 중심으로-
Characteristics and Changes of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Republic of Korea, 1954~2010: Their Magnitude, Frequency, and Percent to Total Precipitation
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초록
본 연구에서는 장기간(1954~2010년)의 일강수량 자료를 보유하고 있는 14개 지점을 대상으로 호우일(95와 99퍼센타일)과 미우일(1, 5, 30, 40, 50퍼센타일)에 해당하는 강수량의 규모, 발생빈도, 연강수량에서 차지하는 강수비율을 분석하여 극한강수의 특성과 변화를 분석하고자 하였다. 본 연구에서 강수일은 일강수량이 0.1mm 이상인 강수일로 정의하였다. 남한 평균은 14개 지점을 평균하여 산출하였다. 미우에 해당하는 강수사상의 규모는 감소하는 경향이 나타났고, 호우의 규모는 증가하였다. 일부 미우와 호우에 해당하는 강수사상의 빈도는 증가했다. 전체 강수량에서 미우가 차지하는 비율은 0.05~0.59%이고, 호우가 차지하는 비율은11.8~34.6%이다. 연강수량에서 차지하는 비율은 미우에서는 감소하는 경향이 나타났고, 호우에서는 증가하고 있다. 추후 생태계와 수자원 관리 등에 유용한 정보를 제공하기 위하여 계절별로 극한강수사상에 대한 상세한 분석이 이루어 져야하며 장기 전망에 대한 연구가 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine characteristics and changes on both (upper and lower) sides of precipitation extreme events in the Republic of Korea using 14 weather stations with a relatively long-term period of data, 1954~2010. The national series was constructed averaging 14 stations. A precipitation day is defined as a day with precipitation 0.1 mm or higher for this study. The upper and lower extreme events are defined using some specific upper (such as 95th and 99th) and lower (such as 1st, 5th, 30th, 40th and 50th) percentiles. In general, the magnitude of precipitation decreases at lower percentiles of extreme events while it increases at higher percentiles during the study period. The mean frequency of precipitation events showed significant increases at upper sides. The mean proportion to total precipitation from light precipitation events experiences a decreases contributing only 0.05~5.9 percent while that from heavy precipitation events does an increases contributing about 34.6 percent at 95th percentile 11.8 percent at 99th percentile. It is crucial to understand and project the impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation events and future studies for development of more accurate prediction model and projection will be needed.
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