지난 40년간 북서 태평양 연안 지역 상륙 태풍의 변동성 분석
Variability of Tropical Cyclones Landfalling on the Coastal Area of the Western North Pacific during the Last 40 years
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This study analyzed the variation of the Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that have made landfalls on the coastal area in the western North Pacific (WNP) for 1982-2021. The coastal area is classified into three sub regions: Vietnam and the Philippine (VP), China (CH), and Korean Peninsula and Japan islands (KJ). No significant long-term trends are found in the frequencies and annual mean intensities of the landfalling TCs over the three sub regions and all the coastal areas in the WNP. However, we found that the life time maximum intensity and landfall intensity of the strong (weak) TCs have significant positive (negative) trends in their long-term variations. The results indicate that the strong (weak) TCs that have made landfalls on the coastal area in the WNP are getting stronger (weaker) in the recent decades. The variations of the landfall TCs related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also analyzed. The significantly positive relationship with the ENSO is found only in the TCs landfalling on the KJ region. On the other hand, the significantly negative (positive) relationships with the PDO are found in the TCs landfalling on the CH (KJ) regions. These variations related the ENSO and PDO can be explained by the changes in the steering flows affecting the movements of TCs towards the East Asian countries. The results of this study provides the basic information for the prediction and analysis of the future changes in the landfall TC activity.
Abstract
This study analyzed the variation of the Tropical Cyclones (TCs) that have made landfalls on the coastal area in the western North Pacific (WNP) for 1982-2021. The coastal area is classified into three sub regions: Vietnam and the Philippine (VP), China (CH), and Korean Peninsula and Japan islands (KJ). No significant long-term trends are found in the frequencies and annual mean intensities of the landfalling TCs over the three sub regions and all the coastal areas in the WNP. However, we found that the life time maximum intensity and landfall intensity of the strong (weak) TCs have significant positive (negative) trends in their long-term variations. The results indicate that the strong (weak) TCs that have made landfalls on the coastal area in the WNP are getting stronger (weaker) in the recent decades. The variations of the landfall TCs related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are also analyzed. The significantly positive relationship with the ENSO is found only in the TCs landfalling on the KJ region. On the other hand, the significantly negative (positive) relationships with the PDO are found in the TCs landfalling on the CH (KJ) regions. These variations related the ENSO and PDO can be explained by the changes in the steering flows affecting the movements of TCs towards the East Asian countries. The results of this study provides the basic information for the prediction and analysis of the future changes in the landfall TC activity.
참고문헌 (24)
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