음주관련 사망에 대한 연령, 기간, 출생코호트 효과 : 1997년부터 2018년까지
Age-period-cohort analysis of alcohol related mortality in Korea, 1997-2018
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이 연구는 국내 발생되고 있는 음주관련 사망에 대한 이해를 높이기 위해 연령, 기간, 출생코호트에 따른 차이를 확인하여 향후 음주 폐해 예방정책의 함의를 모색해보고자 하였다. 분석 자료는 마이크로데이터(MDIS)에 제공하는 사망원인통계자료로 1997년부터 2018년까지의 자료를 활용하였다. 분석결과, 연령효과로 남성과 여성 모두 50대에서 음주로 인한 사망위험이가장 높게 나타났다. 기간효과로는 1997년 이후 감소하다가 2000년 이후 급격하게 증가하였고2004년 이후 다시 감소하는 양상을 보였다. 2004년 이후 지속적으로 감소하던 남성과는 달리여성에서 기간효과로 2010년 이후 사망위험이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 출생코호트 효과로는 남성과 여성 모두 1910-20년대생, 1950년대생에서 음주관련 사망위험이 높게 나타났다. 남성과 달리 여성의 경우 1970년대생 이후로 사망위험이 점차 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 음주로 인한 조기사망을 줄이기 위해 과도한 음주행태가 높아지는 시점에 선별검진 및 예방적 접근을 위한 정책적 논의가 필요함을 시사한다. 여성에 있어서는 향후 음주로인한 폐해가 커질 수 있음에 따라 차별화된 예방전략 마련의 시급성이 강조된다. 최종적으로음주 관련 사망을 효과적으로 감소시키기 위해서는 단편적인 방법인 아닌 남녀별, 연령별, 기간별, 출생코호트별 전략이 달라야 함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study attempted to find implications for future alcohol harm prevention policies by identifying differences according to age, period, and birth cohort to enhance understanding of alcohol-related deaths occurring in Korea. National causes of death registry from 1997 to 2018 was used to assess alcohol related deaths in Korea. Gender-stratified age-period cohort analyses were conducted using the Hierarchical model. The age effect showed the highest relative risk in the age group of 50s. Period and birth cohort effect differed by sex. After 2004, alcohol related mortality trend has declined in male population. Unlike this, female population showed no decline. For the birth cohort effects, female population those who were born in after 1970s was significantly influenced. These analysis results suggest that policy discussions for early screening and preventive approaches are needed at a time when excessive drinking behavior increases to reduce early deaths from drinking. For female, the urgency of preparing differentiated prevention strategies is emphasized as the harm caused by drinking may increase in the future. The results of age period cohort analysis suggests that there is a need of regulations preventing death related to alcohol, differing by sex, birth cohort and age groups.
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