승수이론을 이용한 지속가능한 지역경제성장모델의 개발

Abstract

This paper develops a Sustainable Regional Economic Growth Model (SREG) which estimates the relation of labor population change and employment increase in each occupation and maximum limits and minimum requirements of employment increase by labor population change in a specified region using multiplier theory. To develop the proposed model, sustainable regional economic growth is defined as a steady increase of labor population over a long term period and the limit of employment increase is defined as the estimated labor population change in the region with no need for commutation from the surrounded areas. Developed model was applied to 67 county in Pennsylvania State and the results revealed that the investment in infra- structure occupations, such as transportation, warehousing, utilities, information, communication, and other public utilities, maximizes the effects for increasing employment, whereas finance, insurance, and real estate occupations have minimum effects for increasing employment. Calculated minimum requirements of occupations show that infra-structure occupations is a critical factor for labor population change and maximum limits of occupations show that agriculture and finance occupations are difficult to increase independently.