Rice Production of Nepal in 2030: A Forecast using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model
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Rice is the major staple food in the world – mainly in Asia including Nepal. Both production and consumption of rice are increasing in Nepal, as a result, the import is increasing daily. Despite achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – especially in reducing hunger, both at the global and national levels, a recent trend in increasing hunger at the global level is a major concern. More importantly, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a successor of MDGs which will be in effect till 2030, has set a more ambitious target of ending hunger in all forms. Therefore, in this backdrop forecasting rice production, which is consistently becoming a prime determinant of food security in Nepal, is of paramount importance. The study forecasted the rice area and yield from 2018 to 2030 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The production of rice was calculated by multiplying rice area and productivity. The data on rice production and yield were accessed from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database known as FAOSTAT, from 1961 to 2017. The model suggested that rice area and yield will increase at an average rate of 0.47 and 0.73 percent respectively from 2018 to 2030. More importantly, rice production was forecasted to be increased at a decreasing rate. Therefore, productivity increment was found crucial to meet the ever-growing demand for rice.
Abstract
Rice is the major staple food in the world – mainly in Asia including Nepal. Both production and consumption of rice are increasing in Nepal, as a result, the import is increasing daily. Despite achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) – especially in reducing hunger, both at the global and national levels, a recent trend in increasing hunger at the global level is a major concern. More importantly, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a successor of MDGs which will be in effect till 2030, has set a more ambitious target of ending hunger in all forms. Therefore, in this backdrop forecasting rice production, which is consistently becoming a prime determinant of food security in Nepal, is of paramount importance. The study forecasted the rice area and yield from 2018 to 2030 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The production of rice was calculated by multiplying rice area and productivity. The data on rice production and yield were accessed from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database known as FAOSTAT, from 1961 to 2017. The model suggested that rice area and yield will increase at an average rate of 0.47 and 0.73 percent respectively from 2018 to 2030. More importantly, rice production was forecasted to be increased at a decreasing rate. Therefore, productivity increment was found crucial to meet the ever-growing demand for rice.
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