DEVELOPMENT OF BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: Assessment of Economic Implications for Regional Economies including India
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China’s flagship project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013 is meant to reshape global networks of transport infrastructure further integrating China with Asia, Europe and Africa having significant implications on trade, investment and economic and political ties of China vis-à-vis with other countries. The paper brings the present state of the project in terms of setting up of institutional capabilities and the infrastructure investment into BRI participating countries. It also highlights the impact assessment of BRI for China and draws the economic as well as strategic implications of the project on India. Overall, there has been significant increase in Chinese outward investment during the post- BRI announcement and most of the outward investment has been directed towards countries which are participating in BRI. With regard to the impact on China, it is found that the core industrial output of China has not experienced a revival post BRI announcement. On the trade front, no such evidence of increase in exports of China to the countries falling around BRI corridor is noted so far, and same for imports also from the resource seeking perspective. The possible implications for India is that the BRI project is going to put the Indian economy into a very challenging environment as both countries share the trade complementarities with the BRI participating regions.
Abstract
China’s flagship project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013 is meant to reshape global networks of transport infrastructure further integrating China with Asia, Europe and Africa having significant implications on trade, investment and economic and political ties of China vis-à-vis with other countries. The paper brings the present state of the project in terms of setting up of institutional capabilities and the infrastructure investment into BRI participating countries. It also highlights the impact assessment of BRI for China and draws the economic as well as strategic implications of the project on India. Overall, there has been significant increase in Chinese outward investment during the post- BRI announcement and most of the outward investment has been directed towards countries which are participating in BRI. With regard to the impact on China, it is found that the core industrial output of China has not experienced a revival post BRI announcement. On the trade front, no such evidence of increase in exports of China to the countries falling around BRI corridor is noted so far, and same for imports also from the resource seeking perspective. The possible implications for India is that the BRI project is going to put the Indian economy into a very challenging environment as both countries share the trade complementarities with the BRI participating regions.
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