Population Aging and Creative Destruction
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
초록
Identifying the effect of population aging on industrial innovation is crucial when considering long-term macroeconomic performance in an aging economy. In this paper we analyze the relationship between population aging and technical change within the framework of an economic growth model with quality-improving innovation. A major implication of the model is creative destruction, by which outdated products are eliminated and the state-of-the-art products remain in the markets through the process of competition in the technological development of next-generation products. The results of the analysis suggest that the progress of population aging causes the rate of innovation to decline. Furthermore,increasing the retirement age of workers in a system with a uniform mandatory retirement has a negative effect on the rate of innovation. However, increasing the retirement age of unskilled workers in cases where the retirement ages differ between skilled and unskilled workers might contribute to an increase in the rate of innovation.
Abstract
Identifying the effect of population aging on industrial innovation is crucial when considering long-term macroeconomic performance in an aging economy. In this paper we analyze the relationship between population aging and technical change within the framework of an economic growth model with quality-improving innovation. A major implication of the model is creative destruction, by which outdated products are eliminated and the state-of-the-art products remain in the markets through the process of competition in the technological development of next-generation products. The results of the analysis suggest that the progress of population aging causes the rate of innovation to decline. Furthermore,increasing the retirement age of workers in a system with a uniform mandatory retirement has a negative effect on the rate of innovation. However, increasing the retirement age of unskilled workers in cases where the retirement ages differ between skilled and unskilled workers might contribute to an increase in the rate of innovation.
참고문헌 (22)
- Aghion, P, "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction", Econometrica, 60, pp.323~351 (1992)
- Barro, R. J, "Economic Growth, Second Edition" (2004), The MIT Press
- Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth, "Bloom, D. E.", ~, pp.NBER Working Paper Series, no. 16705 (2011)
- Feller, W., "An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Third Edition" (1968), Wiley
- Futagami, K, "Population Aging and Economic Growth", Journal of Macroeconomics, 23, pp.31~44 (2001)
- Futagami, K., "Technological Innovation, Productivity, and Economic Growth in Aging Societies, In Economic Policy for Aging Societies" (2002), Springer- Verlag
- Galor, O, "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics", Review of Economic Studies, 60, pp.35~52 (1993)
- Grossman, G. M, "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy" (1991), The MIT Press
- Hall, R. E, "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, pp.83~116 (1999)
- Ishikawa, A., "Demographic Analysis of Population Aging in Japan", Journal of Population Problems, 58, pp.45~62 (2002)
- Jones, C. I., "Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeco- nomics: In Honor of Edmund S. Phelps" (2003), Princeton University Press
- Komine, T, "Long-term Forecast of the Demographic Transition in Japan and Asia", Asian Economic Policy Review, 4, pp.19~38 (2009)
- Kremer, M., "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, pp.681~716 (1993)
- Lee, J-W., "Human Capital and Productivity for Korea’s Sustained Economic Growth", Journal of Asian Economics, 16, pp.663~687 (2005)
- Miyazawa, K., "Incentives and Product Variety in an Aging Economy", International Tax and Public Finance, 8, pp.595~607 (2001)
- Noda, H., "Expanding Product Variety and Human Capital Formation in an Ageing Economy", Economic Issues, 12, pp.81~101 (2007)
- Ogawa, N., "Population Aging and the Income and Consumption of the Elderly, In Ways of Working for the Elderly" (2009), Minerva Publishing
- Psacharopoulos, G, "Returns to Investment in Education: A Further Update", Education Economics, 12, pp.111~134 (2004)
- Pecchenino, R. A, "he Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth", Economic Journal, 107, pp.26~46 (1997)
- Schumpeter, J., "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy" (1942), Harper and Brothers
- Segerstrom, P. S., "A Schumpeterian Model of the Product Life Cycle", American Economic Review, 80, pp.1077~1091 (1990)
- Segerstrom, P. S, "The R&D Incentives of Industry Leaders", International Economic Review, 40, pp.745~766 (1999)