Regime changes in uncertainty channel between inflation and output growth
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In order to investigate the presence of regime changes in the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth, bivariate normal mixture GARCH-in-mean models are developed for monthly data of inflation and output growth in USA. Overall, we find significant evidence in favor of and against four hypotheses depending on regimes. The key idea in this paper is that the model embeds two different regimes of a usual volatility, which occurs most of the time, and an extreme volatility, which occurs rarely.
Abstract
In order to investigate the presence of regime changes in the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth, bivariate normal mixture GARCH-in-mean models are developed for monthly data of inflation and output growth in USA. Overall, we find significant evidence in favor of and against four hypotheses depending on regimes. The key idea in this paper is that the model embeds two different regimes of a usual volatility, which occurs most of the time, and an extreme volatility, which occurs rarely.
참고문헌 (72)
- Abel, A., "Optimal investment under uncertainty", American Economic Review, 73, pp.228~233 (1983)
- Akaike, H., "Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle", 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, pp.267~281 (1973)
- Alexander, C., "Normal Mixture GARCH(1, 1) : Applications to Exchange Rate Modelling", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 21, pp.307~336 (2006)
- Baillie, R. T., "Analyzing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, pp.23~40 (1996)
- Baillie, R. T., "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity", Journal of Econometrics, 74, pp.3~30 (1996)
- Ball, C. A., "A simplified jump process for common stock returns", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 18, pp.53~65 (1983)
- Bartlett, M. S., "On the theoretical specification of sampling properties of autocorrelated time series", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 8, pp.27~41 (1946)
- Bauwens, L., "Multivariate mixed normal conditional heteroscedasticity", Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 51, pp.3551~3566 (2007)
- Beine, M., "Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates", Journal of Empirical Finance, 10, pp.641~660 (2003)
- Bernanke, B., "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98, pp.85~106 (1983)
- Bernanke, B., "The Federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission", American Economic Review, 82, pp.901~921 (1992)
- Bierens, H. J., "Testing stationarity and trend stationarity against the unit root hypothesis", Econometric Reviews, 12, pp.1~32 (1993)
- Black, F., "Business Cycles and Equilibrium" (1987), Basil Blackwell
- Black, F., "Studies of stock price volatility changes", Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the American Statistical Association, pp.177~181 (1976), Business and Economical Statistics Section
- Blackburn, K., "On the relationship between growth and volatility", Economics Letters, 83, pp.123~127 (2004)
- Bollerslev, T., "Modelling the coherence in short-run nominal exchange rates : a multivariate generalized ARCH model", Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, pp.498~505 (1990)
- Bredin, D., "Macroeconomic uncertainty and macroeconomic performance: are they related?", Manchester School, 73, pp.58~76 (2005)
- Breitung, J., "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration", Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp.343~363 (2002)
- Brockwell, P. J., "Time series: Theory and Methods" (1987), Springer-Verlag
- Chang, K.-L., "Does the magnitude of the effect of inflation uncertainty on output growth depend on the level of inflation?", Manchester School, 78, pp.126~148 (2010)
- Chen, S. -W., "Evidence of a nonlinear relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty: the case of the four little dragons", Journal of Policy Modelling, 30, pp.363~376 (2008)
- Chen, S., "Dynamic interrelationships in returns and volatilities between Capesize and Panamax markets", Maritime Economics and Logistics, 12, pp.65~90 (2010)
- Cheung, Y.-W., "A long memory model with normal mixture GARCH", Computational Economics, 38, pp.517~539 (2011)
- Chung, C. -F., "Small sample bias in conditional sum of squares estimators of fractionally integrated ARMA models", Empirical Economics, 18, pp.791~806 (1993)
- Chung S. -K., "Cointegrating vectors in a multivariate I(d)regression and Monte Carlo simulations for size and power", pp.1997
- Conrad, C., "The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK", Economics Letters, 106, pp.154~157 (2010)
- Conrad, C., "Modelling the link between US inflation and output : The importance of the uncertainty channel", Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 62, pp.431~453 (2015)
- Conrad, C., "On the transmission of memory in GARCH-in-mean Models", Journal of Time Series Analysis, 36, pp.706~720 (2015)
- Cukierman, A., "A theory of ambiguity, credibility, and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information", Econometrica, 54, pp.1099~1128 (1986)
- Cukierman, A., "Central bank strategy, credibility and independence" (1992), MIT Press
- Deveraux, M., "A positive theory of inflation and inflation variance", Economic Inquiry, 27, pp.105~116 (1989)
- Ding, Z., "A Long Memory Property of Stock Market Returns and a New Model", Journal of Empirical Finance, 1, pp.83~106 (1993)
- Dotsey, M., "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy", Journal of Monetary Economics, 45, pp.631~655 (2000)
- Edwards, S., "Volatility dependence and contagion in emerging equity markets", Journal of Development Economics, 66, pp.505~532 (2001)
- Engle, R. F., "Dynamic conditional correlation-A simple class of multivariate GARCH models", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, pp.339~359 (2002)
- Fountas, S., "Inflation uncertainty, output growth uncertainty, and macroeconomic performance", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68, pp.319~343 (2006)
- Friedman, M., "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment", Journal of Political Economy, 85, pp.451~472 (1977)
- Friedman, B., "Money, income, prices, and interest rates", American Economic Review, 82, pp.472~492 (1992)
- Fuhrer, J. C., "Inflation", output variance trade-offs and optimal monetary policy, 1997, pp.29, 214~234
- Geweke J., "The estimation and application of long memory time series models", Journal of Time Series Analysis, 4, pp.221~238 (1983)
- Ghysels, E., "There is a risk-return trade-off after all", Journal of Financial Economics, 76, pp.509~548 (2005)
- Giordani, P., "Inflation forecast uncertainty", European Economic Review, 47, pp.1037~1059 (2003)
- Granger, C. W. J., "Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48, pp.213~228 (1986)
- Granger, C. W. J., "An Introduction to Long Memory Series", Journal of Time Series Analysis, 1, pp.15~30 (1980)
- Grier, R., "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth : Some GARCH-M evidence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 15, pp.45~58 (2000)
- Haas, M., "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity", Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2, pp.211~250 (2004)
- Haas, M., "Asymmetric Multivariate Normal Mixture GARCH", Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 53, pp.2129~2154 (2009)
- Hansen, B. E., "Autoregressive conditional density estimation", International Economic Review, 35, pp.705~730 (1994)
- Harvey, C. R., "Autoregressive conditional skewness", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Studies, 34, pp.465~487 (1999)
- Henry, O., "The effect of recessions on the relationship between output variability and growth", Southern Economic Journal, 68, pp.683~692 (2002)
- Holland, A. S., "Inflation and uncertainty : tests for temporal ordering", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 27, pp.827~837 (1995)
- Hosking, J. R. M., "Fractional Differencing", Biometrika, 68, pp.165~176 (1981)
- Johansen, S., "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, pp.231~254 (1988)
- Karanasos, M., "On the existence or absence of a variance relationship : a study of macroeconomic uncertainty", WSEAS Transactions on Computers, 4, pp.1475~1482 (2005)
- Kunsch, H. R., "Statistical aspects of self-similar processes", Proceedings of the First World Congress of the Bernoulli Society (1987)
- Kwiatkowski, D, "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?", Journal of Econometrics, 54, pp.159~178 (1992)
- Lamoureux, C. G., "Heteroskedasticity in stock return data : Volume versus GARCH effects", Journal of Finance, 45, pp.221~229 (1990)
- Ljung, G. M., "On a measure of lack of fit in time series models", Biometrika, 65, pp.297~303 (1978)
- Lo, A. W., "Long memory in stock market prices", Econometrica, 59, pp.1279~1313 (1991)
- Logue, D. E., "Inflation and real growth : some empirical results : A Note", Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 13, pp.497~501 (1981)
- MacKinnon, J. G., "Numerical distribution functions of likelihood ratio tests for cointegration", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 14, pp.563~577 (1999)
- Nelson, D. B., "Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns : a new approach", Econometrica, 59, pp.347~370 (1991)
- Neanidis, K. C., "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth : Regime-dependent effects in the G7", Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, pp.81~92 (2013)
- Newey, W. K., "Generalized method of moments specification testing", Journal of Econometrics, 29, pp.229~256 (1985)
- Pindyck, R., "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment", Journal of Economic Literature, 29, pp.1110~1148 (1991)
- Reisen, V. A., "Some Simulations and Applications of Forecasting Long-memory Time Series Models", Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 80, pp.269~287 (1999)
- Robinson, P. M., "Gaussian semiparametric estimation of long range dependence", The Annals of statistics, 23, pp.1630~1661 (1995)
- Schwarz, G., "Estimating the dimension of a model", Annals of Statistics, 6, pp.461~464 (1978)
- Shea, G.S., "Long-Memory Models of Interest Rates: Estimation, Forecasting, and Inference for Variance Bounds on the Interest Rate Term Structure", pp.1987
- New indexes of coincident and leading indicators, "Stock, J.", NBER, 351~393 (1989)
- Sowell, F., "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models", Journal of econometrics, 53, pp.165~188 (1992)
- Vlaar, P. J. G., "The message in weekly exchange rates in the European Monetary System : Mean reversion, conditional heteroscedasticity, and jumps", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 11, pp.351~360 (1993)
