WRF 모형에서 한반도 여름철 강수 예측에 모의영역이 미치는 영향
Effect of Model Domain on Summer Precipitation Predictions over the Korean Peninsula in WRF Model
2
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
We investigated the impact of domain size on the simulated summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two different domains are integrated up to 72-hours from 29 June 2017 to 28 July 2017 when the Changma front is active. The domain sizes are adopted from previous RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and current LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration, while other model configurations are fixed identically. We found that the larger domain size showed better prediction skills, especially in precipitation forecast performance. This performance improvement is particularly noticeable over the central region of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of physical aspects of each variable revealed that the inflow of moisture flux from the East China Sea was well reproduced in the experiment with a large model domain due to a more realistic North Pacific high compared to the small domain experiment. These results suggest that the North Pacific anticyclone could be an important factor for the precipitation forecast during the summer-time over the Korean Peninsula.
Abstract
We investigated the impact of domain size on the simulated summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two different domains are integrated up to 72-hours from 29 June 2017 to 28 July 2017 when the Changma front is active. The domain sizes are adopted from previous RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and current LDAPS (Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System) operated by the Korea Meteorological Administration, while other model configurations are fixed identically. We found that the larger domain size showed better prediction skills, especially in precipitation forecast performance. This performance improvement is particularly noticeable over the central region of the Korean Peninsula. Comparisons of physical aspects of each variable revealed that the inflow of moisture flux from the East China Sea was well reproduced in the experiment with a large model domain due to a more realistic North Pacific high compared to the small domain experiment. These results suggest that the North Pacific anticyclone could be an important factor for the precipitation forecast during the summer-time over the Korean Peninsula.
참고문헌 (36)
- Aligo, E. A., "On the impact of WRF model vertical grid resolution on Midwest summer rainfall forecasts", Wea. Forecasting, 24, pp.575~594 (2009)
- An, S.-I., "A review of recent climate trends and causes over the Korean Peninsula", J. Climate Change Res., 2, pp.237~251 (2011)
- Hyun-Joo Choi, "An updated subgrid orographic parameterization for global atmospheric forecast models", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120(24), pp.12445~12457 (2015), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Qi Chu, "Evaluation of the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model to reproduce a sub-daily extreme rainfall event in Beijing, China using different domain configurations and spin-up times", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22(6), pp.3391~3407 (2018), Copernicus GmbH[DOI]
- S. K. Dash, "Impact of domain size on the simulation of Indian summer monsoon in RegCM4 using mixed convection scheme and driven by HadGEM2", Climate Dynamics, 44(3-4), pp.961~975 (2015), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
- Fasullo, J., "A hydrological definition of Indian monsoon onset and withdrawal", J. Climate, 16, pp.3200~3211 (2003)
- C. Gebhardt, "Uncertainties in COSMO-DE precipitation forecasts introduced by model perturbations and variation of lateral boundaries", Atmospheric Research, 100(2-3), pp.168~177 (2011), Elsevier BV[DOI]
- Prashant Goswami, "A comparative evaluation of impact of domain size and parameterization scheme on simulation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(1), pp.10~22 (2014), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- A. Ghelli, "Comparative analysis of the role of domain size, horizontal resolution and initial conditions in the simulation of tropical heavy rainfall events", Meteorological Applications, 19(2), pp.170~178 (2012), Wiley[DOI]
- Ji-Young Han, "Sensitivity of a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme to Precipitation Production Representation and Its Impact on a Heavy Rain Event over Korea", Monthly Weather Review, 144(6), pp.2125~2135 (2016), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Hong, S. -Y., "Comparison of heavy rainfall mechanisms in Korea and the central US", J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. Ser. II, 82, pp.1469~1479 (2004)
- Hong, S. -Y., "Assessment of the WRF model in reproducing a flash-flood heavy rainfall event over Korea", Atmos. Res., 93, pp.818~831 (2009)
- 홍송유, "Impacts of Shallow Convection Processes on a Simulated Boreal Summer Climatology in a Global Atmospheric Model", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54, pp.361~370 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Hong, S.-Y., "A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation", Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, pp.103~120 (2004)
- Hong, S.-Y., "Lower-tropospheric enhancement of gravity wave drag in a global spectral atmospheric forecast model", Wea. Forecasting, 23, pp.523~531 (2008)
- Hong, S.-Y., "A review of regional climate change in East-Asia and the Korean peninsula based on global and regional climate modeling researches", J. Climate Change Res., 2, pp.269~281 (2011)
- 홍송유, "The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) System for Global Weather Forecasting", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 54, pp.267~292 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- Iacono, M. J., "Radiative forcing by long‐lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer mod els", J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 113, pp.D13103~ (2008)
- Jong-Hoon Jeong, "Impact of the Cold Pool on Mesoscale Convective System–Produced Extreme Rainfall over Southeastern South Korea: 7 July 2009", Monthly Weather Review, 144(10), pp.3985~4006 (2016), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Kamae, Y., "Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers", Environ. Res. Lett., 14, pp.054019~ (2019)[DOI]
- Kim, Y. -J., "Improvement of orographic gravity wave parameterization using a mesoscale gravity wave model", J. Atmos. Sci., 52, pp.1875~1902 (1995)
- 김은희, "초단기 예측모델에서 지상 GPS 자료동화의 영향 연구", 대기, 25(4), pp.623~637 (2015), 한국기상학회
- Kwon, Y. C., "A mass-flux cumulus parameterization scheme across gray-zone resolutions", Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, pp.583~598 (2017)[DOI]
- 이태영, "Heavy Precipitation Systems over the Korean Peninsula and their Classification", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 43(4), pp.367~396 (2007), 한국기상학회
- 이주영, "Physical and Dynamic Factors That Drove the Heavy Rainfall Event Over the middle Korean Peninsula on 26-27 July 2011", Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 53(1), pp.101~120 (2017), 한국기상학회
- Yuan Li, "Evaluation of Optimized WRF Precipitation Forecast over a Complex Topography Region during Flood Season", Atmosphere, 7(11), pp.145~ (2016), MDPI AG[DOI]
- 민재식, "지역예측모델 영역 크기에 따른 집중호우 수치모의 민감도 실험", 대기, 26(1), pp.85~95 (2016), 한국기상학회
- C. Peralta, "Accounting for initial condition uncertainties in COSMO-DE-EPS", Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117(D7) (2012), American Geophysical Union (AGU)[DOI]
- Yi Shi, "A Lagrangian Analysis of Water Vapor Sources and Pathways for Precipitation in East China in Different Stages of the East Asian Summer Monsoon", Journal of Climate, 33(3), pp.977~992 (2020), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Hyeyum Hailey Shin, "Representation of the Subgrid-Scale Turbulent Transport in Convective Boundary Layers at Gray-Zone Resolutions", Monthly Weather Review, 143(1), pp.250~271 (2015), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Model Version 4, "Skamarock, W. C.", NCAR, 145~, pp.Tech. Note NCAR (2019), TN-556+STR
- B. J. Sohn, "Characteristic Features of Warm-Type Rain Producing Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula Inferred from TRMM Measurements", Monthly Weather Review, 141(11), pp.3873~3888 (2013), American Meteorological Society[DOI]
- Song, H. -J., "Two heavy rainfall types over the Korean peninsula in the humid East Asian summer environment: A satellite observation study", Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, pp.363~382 (2015)[DOI]
- Tewari, M., "Implementation and verification of the unified NOAH land surface model in the WRF model", Extended Abstract, 20th conference on weather analysis and forecasting, 2004, pp.14, 11~15
- Wang, X., "The sensitivity of heavy precipitation to horizontal resolution, domain size, and rain rate assimilation: case studies with a convection-permitting model", Adv. Meteorol., 2016, pp.7943845~ (2016)[DOI]
- Sae-Rim Yeo, "The non-linear relationship between the western North Pacific anticyclonic circulation and Korean summer precipitation on subseasonal timescales", Climate Dynamics, 54(1-2), pp.525~541 (2020), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]