ARIMA 모형을 이용한 조직통합이 예산배분에 미치는 영향에 관한 사례연구 : 일본 문부과학성을 중심으로
A case study of the influence of agency merger on budgetary allocation focusing on the Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)
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행정개혁의 대표적인 사례인 중앙정부조직의 개편에 대한 기존의 연구들은 조직개편이 예산에 미치는 영향에 관해서는 거의 다루지 않고 있다. 조직통합이 예산에 미치는 영향의 첫 번째는 외부적 영향력의 변화로서 통합된 새로운 조직이 통합이전의 조직들의 예산의 합과 차이가 있느냐는 점이다. 두 번째는 내부적 영향력의 변화로서 새로이 통합된 조직내부의 예산배분이 변화되었느냐의 점이다. 문부성과 과학기술청을 하나로 통합한 일본의 문부과학성의 경우 검증결과, 통합조직의 대외적 예산권력은 변화가 없다는 점증주의의 가설은 95%검정에서, 예산권력이 증대된다는 기업합병모형은 90% 검정에서 채택되었다. 따라서 점증주의와 기업합병모형의 가능성을 모두 내포하고 있다. 통합조직내부의 예산경쟁의 경우 규모가 큰 문부성의 예산권력은 변화가 없었으나 규모가 작은 과학기술청의 예산은 증대된 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 통합되는 조직의 크기나 예산규모의 차이에 따라 다양한 조직통합의 결과가 나타날 수 있다는 것을 시사한다.
Abstract
Existing studies of government reorganizations as typical examples of administrative reform do not handle the influence of government reorganizations on budgeting. The first influence of agency merger is change of external influence, which means whether the share of the newly made organization is different from the sum of the shares of the original organizations or not. The incrementalist perspective sets up a kind of null hypothesis of no change. The business model sets up an expectation of greater budgetary power. The political justification for the reform sets up the opposite expectation, that the new unit will require fewer resources to do the same tasks. The second one is the internal politics of newly made organizations. The null hypothesis is that moving from a prior location to the newly formed organization will not affect the component organization’s budget share dramatically. In Japan, the Ministry of Education (MOE) and the Science and Technology Agency (STA) were integrated into MEXT. As for external influence, incrementalist hypothesis was accepted at 95% level and the business model was accepted at 90% level. Therefore, possibility of the both models exist. As for internal politics, budget share of MOE with larger scale did not change, but that of STA with smaller scale increased. This suggests that difference of budget scale could influence budgetary allocation of agency merger.
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