기후변화에 따른 벼 병해충 피해의 공간적 파급효과 분석
An analysis on spatial spillover effects of rice pest and disease damages under climate change
0
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
It has been widely reported that the climate change represented by temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes is one of the key drivers of outbreaks of pests and diseases of plants. In addition, since the pests and diseases can diffuse spatially, the pest and disease outbreaks of certain sites are very likely to influence those of neighboring sites. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to elicit the causal relationship between climate factors and rice pest-disease damage rates, and to quantify the spatial spillover effects of rice pests and diseases. We construct the rice pest-disease damage models in consideration of spatial dependance of rice pests and diseases using a spatial panel tobit model. We use the site specific rice pest-disease damage data provided by Korea's Rural Development Administration from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the climatic conditions can significantly affect the rice pest-disease damages, but differently across the types of rice pests and diseases. We also found that there are significant spatial spillover effects (indirect effects) of rice pest-disease damages, and spatial spillover effects of pests are greater than those of diseases.
Abstract
It has been widely reported that the climate change represented by temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes is one of the key drivers of outbreaks of pests and diseases of plants. In addition, since the pests and diseases can diffuse spatially, the pest and disease outbreaks of certain sites are very likely to influence those of neighboring sites. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to elicit the causal relationship between climate factors and rice pest-disease damage rates, and to quantify the spatial spillover effects of rice pests and diseases. We construct the rice pest-disease damage models in consideration of spatial dependance of rice pests and diseases using a spatial panel tobit model. We use the site specific rice pest-disease damage data provided by Korea's Rural Development Administration from 1990 to 2015. The results show that the climatic conditions can significantly affect the rice pest-disease damages, but differently across the types of rice pests and diseases. We also found that there are significant spatial spillover effects (indirect effects) of rice pest-disease damages, and spatial spillover effects of pests are greater than those of diseases.
참고문헌 (31)
- 한국 기후변화 평가보고서 2010–기후변화 영향 및 적응, "국립환경과학원", 463~, pp.발간등록번호 11-1480523-000707-01 (2011)
- 한국 기후변화 평가보고서 2014–기후변화 영향 및 적응, "국립환경과학원", 157~, pp.발간등록번호 11-1480523-002031-01 (2015)
- 한반도 기후변화 전망보고서, "기상청", 151~ (2012)
- "종관기상관측자료" (2017), 기상청 기상자료개방포털[URL]
- 김관원, "공간계량기법을 이용한 기후변화가 벼 병해충 피해에 미치는 영향 분석", 석사, pp.2018
- 김관원, "공간적 종속성을 고려한 기후변화가 벼 병해충 발생에 미치는 영향 분석", 2017년 한국농식품정책학회 하계학술대회, pp.891~914 (2017)
- 기후변화에 대한 농수산분야의 현황과 대책(병리분야).기후변화에 대한 농수산학 분야의 현황과대책, "김영호", 한국과학기술한림원, 61~106, pp.연구보고서 66 (2010)
- 김용준, "병해충의 공간자기상관을 고려한 인삼 피해함수 추정", 농촌경제, 40(4), pp.75~95 (2017), 한국농촌경제연구원[DOI]
- 김용준, "병해충의 동시발생을 고려한 경제적 방제수준 설정", 년 한국농업경제학회 하계학술대회, pp.710~723 (2017)
- 김태영, "WTO 무역원활화가 양국간 무역에 미치는 효과: 공간중력모형을 이용한 분석", 무역학회지, 39(5), pp.161~183 (2014), 한국무역학회
- 김창길, "기후변화에 따른 농업부문 영향분석", pp.89~94 (2008), 한국농촌경제연구원
- 노재선, "기후변수와 쌀 단수간의 인과성 및 이상기후가 쌀 단수에 미치는 영향 분석", 농업경제연구, 53(1), pp.21~39 (2012), 한국농업경제학회
- 2006년도 농작물 병해충 예찰 방제보고서, "농촌진흥청", 138~, pp.발간번호 11-1390000-001007-10 (2006)
- 2009년도 농작물 병해충 예찰 방제보고서, "농촌진흥청", 52~102, pp.발간번호 11-1390000-001007-10 (2009)
- 2011년도 농작물 병해충 예찰 방제보고서, "농촌진흥청", 79~, pp.발간번호 11-1390000-001007-10 (2011)
- 농촌진흥청, "농작물 병해충예찰 방제 요강", pp.48~49 (2016)
- "농촌진흥청 재해대응과·국가 농작물 병해충 시스템 내부자료", ~
- 신정욱, "한국의 2011-2100년 기후변화가 고추 탄저병 살균제 살포에 미치는 영향", 한국농림기상학회지, 13(1), pp.10~19 (2011), 한국농림기상학회
- 기후변화에 대한 농수산분야의 현황과 대책(병리분야).기후변화에 대한 농수산학 분야의 현황과대책, "이변우", 한국과학기술한림원, 48~, pp.연구보고서 66 (2010)
- 정학균, "기후변화가 벼 병해충 피해면적 발생에 미치는 영향분석", 한국환경농학회지, 33(1), pp.52~56 (2014), 한국환경농학회[DOI]
- Anselin, L., "Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models" (1988), Kluwer
- Babu, G. J., "Goodness-of-fit tests when parameters are estimated", Sankhy¯a, 66(1), pp.63~74 (2004)
- Bhatti, M. I., "Econometric Analysis of Model Selection and Model Testing" (2006), Ashgate Publishing Limited
- Cannon, R. J. C., "The implications of predicted climate change for insect pests in the UK, with emphasis on non-indigenous species", Global Change Biology, 4(7), pp.785~796 (1998)
- Challinor, A., "A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation", Nat Clim Change, 4(4), pp.287~291 (2014)
- Deutsch, A. A., "Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude", PNAS, 105(18), pp.6668~6672 (2008)
- Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "IPCC.", IPCC, ~ (2014)
- LeSage, J. P., "Introduction to spatial econometrics", pp.2009, Chapman & Hall
- Rao, G. G. S. N., "Global climate change and Indian Agriculture case studies from ICAR network project", pp.71~73 (2009), ICAR Publication New Delhi
- Kim, T. Y., "Agricultural Landowners’ Response to Incentives for Afforestation", Resource and Energy Economics, 43, pp.93~111 (2016)
- Wooldridge, J. M., "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data" (2010), The MIT Press