Forecasting the Growth of Smartphone Market in Mongolia Using Bass Diffusion Model
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The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.
Abstract
The Bass Diffusion Model is one of the most successful models in marketing research, and management science in general. Since its publication in 1969, it has guided marketing research on diffusion. This paper illustrates the usage of the Bass diffusion model, using mobile cellular subscription diffusion as a context. We fit the bass diffusion model to three large developed markets, South Korea, Japan, and China, and the emerging markets of Vietnam, Thailand, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. We estimate the parameters of the bass diffusion model using the nonlinear least square method. The diffusion of mobile cellular subscriptions does follow an S-curve in every case. After acquiring m, p, and q parameters we use k-Means Cluster Analysis for grouping countries into three groups. By clustering countries, we suggest that diffusion rates and patterns are similar, where countries with emerging markets can follow in the footsteps of countries with developed markets. The purpose was to predict the timing and the magnitude of the market maturity and to determine whether the data follow the typical diffusion curve of innovations from the Bass model.
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