Vote Determinants of the 2002 Presidential Election in Korea

Abstract

Using a multi-stage vote decision model by Miller and Shanks (1996), this study analyses the effects of sociological, psychological, and rational variables on the votes ofvoting patterns in the 16th presidential election in Korea. It finds that the region is the most important variable in individual vote decision, followed by one's ideology and evaluation of government performance. But in the collective election outcome, ideology and issue position have givengave Roh Moo-hHyun decisive advantages for that led to his victory. It suggests that the 16th presidential election is a realigning election, and both regional and ideological cleavages will continue to be electoral cleavagesso in the near future.