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Declining Fertility in Two Koreas: The Demographic Implications for a Korean Reunification

Ronald Kwon|Amanda Admire|Christopher Vito
한국학중앙연구원 (The Academy of Korean Studies)|2015.12|Korea Journal|제55권 제4호|pp. 85-110|DOI 10.25024/kj.2015.55.4.85

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키워드

North KoreaSouth Koreareunificationdeclining fertilitydemographic advantagedemographic disadvantage
주제분류한국어와문학

초록

Declining fertility has occurred within both North and South Korea. The shifting fertility trends within both countries may have important implications upon their eventual reunification. Prior research has identified the demographic advantage of a relatively young population in relation to the actual German reunification in 1990. Conversely, demographers have identified a demographic disadvantage, in that the ratio of South to North Koreans is relatively low. This study reexamines whether changes in fertility levels in both Koreas have altered the demographic advantages and disadvantages highlighted in prior studies. The findings suggest that below replacement level fertility within the two Koreas as well as the relatively higher fertility in North Korea may not only erode the demographic benefit identified in the earlier study, but also exacerbate the demographic disadvantage. Thus, from a demographic standpoint, reunification at an earlier point in time may be more beneficial than at a later one.

Abstract

Declining fertility has occurred within both North and South Korea. The shifting fertility trends within both countries may have important implications upon their eventual reunification. Prior research has identified the demographic advantage of a relatively young population in relation to the actual German reunification in 1990. Conversely, demographers have identified a demographic disadvantage, in that the ratio of South to North Koreans is relatively low. This study reexamines whether changes in fertility levels in both Koreas have altered the demographic advantages and disadvantages highlighted in prior studies. The findings suggest that below replacement level fertility within the two Koreas as well as the relatively higher fertility in North Korea may not only erode the demographic benefit identified in the earlier study, but also exacerbate the demographic disadvantage. Thus, from a demographic standpoint, reunification at an earlier point in time may be more beneficial than at a later one.

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