東아시아 金融危機國家들의 무역수지 전망과 시사점
Trade Balances of the Asian Countries under Crisis: Forecast and Evaluation
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To overcome the financial crisis, we need to do some reform, such as to change the governmental and non-governmental structure, make sure the policy to be transparent, and remove restrictions, etc. All these measures can restore the confidence of foreign investors towards Korea. But to make balance of the trade surplus and keep foreign exchange reserve at a reasonable level, ensure foreign exchange and the security of financial department is one of the most urgent topics. Since the deep relationship of economy among countries in North-East Asia, financial crisis is not only the problem in Korea. It is already expended to the whole North-East Asia. This thesis shows the idea that we can forecast surplus in the trade balance scale, enlarge the trade balance of South Korea and activate export. It also shows that instead of the increase of export, the surplus is caused by the decrease of import. At this point of view, the number of surplus is not true. If the investment keeps decreasing like this, the foundation of Korean Economy will collapse.
Abstract
To overcome the financial crisis, we need to do some reform, such as to change the governmental and non-governmental structure, make sure the policy to be transparent, and remove restrictions, etc. All these measures can restore the confidence of foreign investors towards Korea. But to make balance of the trade surplus and keep foreign exchange reserve at a reasonable level, ensure foreign exchange and the security of financial department is one of the most urgent topics. Since the deep relationship of economy among countries in North-East Asia, financial crisis is not only the problem in Korea. It is already expended to the whole North-East Asia. This thesis shows the idea that we can forecast surplus in the trade balance scale, enlarge the trade balance of South Korea and activate export. It also shows that instead of the increase of export, the surplus is caused by the decrease of import. At this point of view, the number of surplus is not true. If the investment keeps decreasing like this, the foundation of Korean Economy will collapse.