The Drivers of Inflation in Korea: Insights from a Small Open DSGE Model
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This study analyzes the drivers of inflation in South Korea using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the characteristics of Korea as a small open economy. Employing quarterly data from 1999Q2 to 2023Q2, Bayesian estimation is used to estimate Korea-specific parameters. Based on the estimated parameters, impulse response analysis and historical decomposition are conducted. The results indicate that cost-push shocks tied to imported goods pricing have been the primary driver of recent inflation surges in Korea. Accordingly, policymakers need to adopt a comprehensive approach—including not only monetary policy but also macroprudential measures and raw material supply management—to mitigate supply-side inflationary pressures effectively.
Abstract
This study analyzes the drivers of inflation in South Korea using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the characteristics of Korea as a small open economy. Employing quarterly data from 1999Q2 to 2023Q2, Bayesian estimation is used to estimate Korea-specific parameters. Based on the estimated parameters, impulse response analysis and historical decomposition are conducted. The results indicate that cost-push shocks tied to imported goods pricing have been the primary driver of recent inflation surges in Korea. Accordingly, policymakers need to adopt a comprehensive approach—including not only monetary policy but also macroprudential measures and raw material supply management—to mitigate supply-side inflationary pressures effectively.