간암 조기 진단을 위한 개인별 간암발생 예측모형의 유용성
Efficacy of Individual Prediction Model for the Early Diagnosis of Hepatocellular Carcinoma
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본 연구는 간암발생 위험도에 따라 개발된 개인별 간암발생 예측모형의 유용성을 전향적 연구관찰을 통하여 확인하고자 하였다. 1999년 1월부터 2000년 12월까지 연세대학교 의과대학 세브란스병원에 내원하여 간암발생 위험군으로 판단되어 정기적으로(최소 2회 이상) 복부 초음파 검진을 받아온 833명의 환자를 대상으로 하였으며 이 중 44명의 간암 환자가 발생하였다. 3 cm 이하의 소간암의 진단율은 65.9%로 이전의 소간암 진단율과 유사한 결과를 보였다. 간암발생은 간암발생 저위험군에서 0.62%, 중간위험군에서 4.84%, 고위험군에서 22.9%의 발생률을 보여 개인별 간암발생 예측모형에 따른 위험군 분류가 유용함을 보여주었다. 따라서 개인별 간암발생 예측모형이 조기진단을 위한 선별검사의 효용성을 높일 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.
Abstract
Background : Screening tests for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the high risk population can detect tumors at an earlier stage and thus confer a higher chance of receiving treatment. However, the usefulness, frequency and cost-effectiveness of screening for HCC may differ in different areas, possibly reflecting differences in risk factors. Last decade, we have identified risk factors for HCC in 4339 Korean patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and usefulness of individual prediction model for the early diagnosis of HCC. Methods : We studied a total of 833 patients who visited Yonsei University Medical Center for regular check-up including ultrasonography and alpha-fetoprotein from January 1999 to December 2000. The patients were classified into a low risk group (< 5%), an intermediate risk group (5~15%), and an high risk group (> 15%) by the probability of HCC development according to individual prediction model (IPM). The patients who developed HCC during the follow-up periods were analyzed using IPM. All the detailed data of clinical parameters were obtained by our self-exploited data base system prospectively and analyzed by SAS program. Results : 44 (5.3%) out of 833 patients developed HCC during mean follow-up periods of 36 months. According to IPM, 2 (0.62%) of 324 patients in the low risk group, 20 (4.84%) of 413 patients in the intermediate risk group, and 22 (22.9%) of 96 patients in the high risk group were diagnosed as HCC. In 29 of 44 HCC patients (65.9%), initial presentation of tumor size was less than 3 cm in diameter. Conclusion : We confirmed the reliability of established IPM for screening of HCC and this model may help screening program to be done effectively by focusing high risk groups for HCC.
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