무공케이슨 방파제의 원호활동에 대한 신뢰성 분석
Reliability Analysis of Open Cell Caisson Breakwater Against Circular Slip Failure
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본 연구에서는 국내 16개의 무공케이슨 방파제 설계자료를 이용하여 원호활동에 대한 신뢰성분석을 통하여 신뢰성 수준을분석하였다. 신뢰성 분석을 위하여 지반의 강도 및 단위중량, 피복재와 상치구조물의 단위중량, 상치구조물 상부에 재하되는하중의 불확실성을 결정하였다. 해석변수의 불확실성을 반영하여 임의로 재현된 무공케이슨 방파제 물성에 대하여 Bishop 간편법을 이용하여 하중 및 저항을 산정하였다. 충분히 많은 회수의 무공케이슨 방파제에 대한 해석을 Monte Carlo Simulation 으로 수행하였고, 모든 해석 케이스에 도출된 하중과 저항 값을 수집하여 통계분석을 하였다. Monte Carlo Simulation으로부터도출되는 파괴확률이 아주 낮은 경우가 파괴확률의 수렴 문제가 발생하여 하중과 저항의 통계특성을 반영하여 FORM(First-Order Reliability Method) 해석을 통해 신뢰수준을 평가하였다. 무공케이슨 방파제의 안전율, 하중 및 저항의 불확실성, 하중 및저항의 상관성이 신뢰수준에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다.
Abstract
Reliability analyses of sixteen domestic design cases of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were conducted in this study. For the reliability analyses, uncertainties of parameters of soils, mound, and concrete cap were assessed. Bishop simplified method was used to obtain load and resistance of open cell caisson breakwater for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwater. Sufficient number of Monte Carlo simulations were conducted for randomly generated open cell caisson breakwaters, and statistical analysis was conducted on loads and resistances collected from the large number of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability of failure produced from Monte Carlo simulation has a nonconvergence issue for very low probability of failure; therefore, First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) was conducted using the statistical characteristics of loads and resistances of open cell caisson breakwaters. In addition, effects of safety factor, uncertainties of load and resistance, and correlation between load and resistance on reliability of open cell caisson breakwaters against circular sliding failure were examined.
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