Association of Intensive Endoscopic Burden with Esophageal Cancer Detection: A Nationwide Cohort Study
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Background/Aims: Early diagnosis of esophageal cancer (EC) remains challenging despite the increasing frequency of endoscopic screenings globally. The rapidly increasing number of endoscopic screenings performed over a certain period might influence diagnostic performance. This study evaluated the association between the number of endoscopic screenings and EC detection rates in a nationwide cohort. Methods: This retrospective population-based study used the Korean National Cancer Screening Program database, comprising 32,774,742 males and females aged ≥40 years between 2015 and 2019. Negative binomial regression model and least-squares mean evaluation were used to assess the association between month of the year and EC detection rates. Results: This study enrolled 28,032,590 participants who underwent upper endoscopy. The number of participants in the fourth quarter (October to December: 10,923,142 [39.0%]) was 2.1 times higher than that in the first quarter (January to March: 5,085,087 [18.1%]); this trend continued for all 5 years. Contrarily, detection rates for EC in the fourth quarter (0.08/1,000 person) were half that in the first quarter (0.15/1,000 person). The odds of detecting EC were lowest in November; in 2015 the odds were 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.79; p=0.001) times lower and in 2016, they were 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 0.68; p<0.001) times lower compared to January. The predicted detection rates showed a decreasing trend toward the end of the year (p>0.05 for all). Conclusions: The workload of endoscopists increased excessively with the rising number of endoscopies toward the end of the year, which was reflected by the decreased EC detection rates during this period.
Abstract
Background/Aims: Early diagnosis of esophageal cancer (EC) remains challenging despite the increasing frequency of endoscopic screenings globally. The rapidly increasing number of endoscopic screenings performed over a certain period might influence diagnostic performance. This study evaluated the association between the number of endoscopic screenings and EC detection rates in a nationwide cohort. Methods: This retrospective population-based study used the Korean National Cancer Screening Program database, comprising 32,774,742 males and females aged ≥40 years between 2015 and 2019. Negative binomial regression model and least-squares mean evaluation were used to assess the association between month of the year and EC detection rates. Results: This study enrolled 28,032,590 participants who underwent upper endoscopy. The number of participants in the fourth quarter (October to December: 10,923,142 [39.0%]) was 2.1 times higher than that in the first quarter (January to March: 5,085,087 [18.1%]); this trend continued for all 5 years. Contrarily, detection rates for EC in the fourth quarter (0.08/1,000 person) were half that in the first quarter (0.15/1,000 person). The odds of detecting EC were lowest in November; in 2015 the odds were 0.57 (95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.79; p=0.001) times lower and in 2016, they were 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.37 to 0.68; p<0.001) times lower compared to January. The predicted detection rates showed a decreasing trend toward the end of the year (p>0.05 for all). Conclusions: The workload of endoscopists increased excessively with the rising number of endoscopies toward the end of the year, which was reflected by the decreased EC detection rates during this period.