Random Parameters Tobit 모형을 이용한 무신호 3지교차로 사고율 모형 개발에 관한 연구
Modeling Accident Rates at Three-way Unsignalized Intersections with Random Parameters Tobit Model
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
이 연구는 random parameters tobit 모형을 이용하여 무신호 3지 교차로에서의 사고율에 영향을 미치는 요소를 파악하는데 목적이 있다. 기존의 ‘건수’ 개념이 아닌 ‘사고율’ 개념으로의 접근을 위해 tobit 모형을 적용하였으며, 특히, random parameters를 통해 기존의 fixed parameters를 적용한 모형에서는 고려할 수 없었던 교차로별로 상이할 수 있는 특성, 즉 이질성을 고려할 수가 있었다. 모형 구축 결과, random parameters를 고려한 모형에서 설명력이 향상되었음을 알 수 있었으며, 총 9개의 통계적으로 유의한 변수 중 8개의 변수가 random parameters를 가지는 것으로 나타나 교차로별로 사고율 발생에 미치는 영향이 다를 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 향후 사고모형 구축과 관련된 연구에서는 일률적으로 단일모형을 개발하여 전체 대상 도로의 안전성을 설명하기보다는 대상 도로별 다양성과 자료의 이질성을 고려할 수 있는 방법론 적용이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to find the elements affecting traffic accident rates at three-way unsignalized intersections using a random parameters Tobit model. For accident rates, instead of using the number of accidents as a dependent variable, a Tobit regression model was applied. Through applying random parameters to enable the consideration of heterogeneity, specific characteristics of each intersection could also be analyzed. Modeling with random parameters was confirmed to have a slightly higher explanation power than modeling with fixed parameters, which is currently popularly performed. Nine variables were found to have statistically significant effects on accident rates and of them eight variables were found to have random parameters, indicating the effects on accident rates could be varied at each intersection. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the use of methods which could take heterogeneity into account concerning accident data in future traffic accident modeling research.
참고문헌 (33)
- 경찰청, "교통사고통계", ~ (2015)
- Anastasopoulos, P., "A note on modeling vehicle-accident frequencies with random parameter count models", Accident analysis and prevention, 41(1), pp.153~159 (2009)
- Bhat, C., "Simulation estimation of mixed discrete choice models using randomized and scrambles Halton sequences", Transportation Research Part B, 37(1), pp.837~855 (2003)
- Engel, J., "Models for response data showing extrapoisson variation", Statistical Neerlandica, 38(3), pp.159~167 (1984)
- Greene, W., "Limdep, Version 9.0" (2007), Econometric Software Inc.
- Hoong Chor Chin, "Applying the random effect negative binomial model to examine traffic accident occurrence at signalized intersection", Accident analysis and prevention, 25, pp.253~259 (2003)
- Joshua S. C., "Estimating Truck Accident Rate and Involvements Using Linear and Poisson regression models", Transportation Planning and Technology, 15(1), pp.41~58 (1990)
- Jovanis P. P., "Modeling the Relationship of accidents to miles traveled", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1068, pp.42~51 (1986)
- Lawless, J., "Negative binomial and mixed poisson regression", Canadian Journal of Statistics, 15(3), pp.209~225 (1987)
- 이근희, "RPNB 모형을 이용한 고속도로 인터체인지 구간에서의 교통사고모형- 인터체인지 형태별", 지역별로, 2014, pp.16(5), 133~142[DOI]
- Lee, J., "Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-roadway accidents;am empirical analysis", Accident analysis and prevention, 34(2), pp.149~161 (2002)
- Maher, M., "A new bivariate negative binomial model for accident frequencies", Traffic Engineering and Control, 32(9), pp.422~433 (1991)
- Malyshikina, N., "Empirical assessment of the impact of highway design exceptions on the frequency and severity of vehicle accidents", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 42(1), pp.131~139 (2010)
- Miaou, S. P., "Modeling vehicle accidents and highway at geometric design relationships", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 25(6), pp.689~709 (1993)
- Miaou, S., "The Relationship Between Truck Accidents and Geometric Design of Road Sections: Poisson Versus Negative Binomial Regressions", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 26(4), pp.471~482 (1994)
- Milton, J., "Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 40(1), pp.260~266 (2008)
- Narayan Venkataraman, "Random parameter models of interstate crash frequencies by severity, number of vehicles involved, collision and location type", Accident analysis and prevention, 29, pp.309~318 (2013)
- Narayan S. Venkataraman, "Model of relationship between interstate crash occurrence and geometrics", Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2236, pp.41~48 (2011)
- Panagiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos, "A study on factors affecting highway accident rates using the randomparameters tobit model", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 45, pp.628~633 (2012)
- 박민호, "확률적 모수를 고려한 음이항모형에 의한 교통사고와 기하구조와의 관계- 미국 워싱턴 주(州) 고속도로를 중심으로", 대한토목학회논문집(국문), 33(6), pp.2437~2445 (2013), 대한토목학회[DOI]
- 박민호, "Random Parameter를 이용한 4지 신호교차로에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발 : 부산광역시를 대상으로", 한국도로학회논문집, 17(6), pp.65~74 (2015), 한국도로학회
- Poch M., "Negative binomial analysis of intersection-accident frequencies", Journal of Transportation Engineering, 122(2), pp.105~113 (1996)
- P. Ch. Anastasopoulos, "Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways", Accident analysis and prevention, 40, pp.768~775 (2008)
- R. R. Dinu, "Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India", Journal of Safety Research, 42, pp.39~42 (2011)
- Shankar, V., "Effect of Roadway Geometrics and Environmental Factors on Rural Freeway Accident Frequencies", Accident Analysis and Prevention, 27(3), pp.542~555 (1995)
- Shankar, V., "Modeling accident frequencies as zero-altered probability processes; an empirical inquiry", Accident Analysis and prevention, 29(6), pp.829~837 (1997)
- Shankar, V., "Evaluating median cross-over likelihoods with clustered accident counts; an empirical inquiry using the random effects negative binomial model", Transportation Research Record, 1635, pp.44~48 (1998)
- Sittikariya S., "Modeling heterogeneity: traffic accidents", pp.80~, VDM Verlag
- Talley, W. K., "Safety investments and operating conditions Determinants of accident passenger-vessel damage cost", S.Econ. J, 61, pp.819~829
- Train, K., "Valuing the Environment Using Recreation Demand Models" (1987), Elgar Press
- Ulfarsson, Damian Deptuch, "A heterogeneity-in-means count model for evaluating the effects of interchange type on heterogeneous influences of interstate geometrics on crash frequencies", Analytic Methods in Accident Research, 2, pp.12~20 (2014)
- Washington, S. P., "Statistical and Econometric Models for Transportation Data Analysis", pp.2011, Chapman Hall
- Weiss, A. A., "The effects of helmet use on the severity of head injuries in motorcycle accidents", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87(417), pp.48~56 (1992)