장래 전기차 충전 인프라 보급 수준 평가 및 계획을 위한 시도별 전기차 보급 성장 예측 모형 개발
Development of a Regional Electric Vehicle Adoption Growth Prediction Model for Evaluating and Planning Future Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Deployment Levels
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
여객 및 화물에 대한 수송 수요가 증가하면서 수송분야에서도 탄소중립을 위한 노력의 일환으로 친환경 차량으로의 전환이 가속되고 있다. 친환경 차량으로의 효율적인 전환을 위해서는 보급추이와 성장세를 기반으로 충전 수요에 적절히 대응하기 위한 인프라 구축 전략을 수립해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 곰페르츠 성장모형을 활용하여 지역별 전기차량 및 전기 화물차에 대한 보급 추이를 예측하였다. 예측 결과, 지역별로 전기차량의 성장이 가속화되는 시기가 다름을 식별하였다. 또한 전기승용차와 전기화물차의 성장 및 포화 시기가 다름을 확인하였다. 해당 결과는 친환경 차량의 이용자들의 이용 편의를 위해 지역별 인프라 충전 우선순위 선정하는데 활용될 수 있으며, 급격하게 확산되는 화물차의 충전 수요 및 보조금 재원 확보와 같은 정책 수립에 기여할 것이라 기대한다.
Abstract
As the demand for passenger and freight transportation increases, the transportation sector is accelerating its transition to eco-friendly vehicles as part of efforts to achieve carbon neutrality. To efficiently transition to eco-friendly vehicles, it is necessary to establish infrastructure development strategies that appropriately respond to charging demands based on the distribution trends and growth rates. This study predicts the distribution trends of electric passenger cars and electric freight vehicles in different regions using the Gompertz growth model. The prediction results identified that the acceleration periods of electric vehicle growth vary by region. It was also found that the growth and saturation periods differ between electric passenger cars and electric freight vehicles. These results can be utilized in selecting regional infrastructure charging priorities for the convenience of eco-friendly vehicle users and are expected to contribute to policy formulation, such as securing funding for subsidies and responding to the rapidly increasing charging demands of freight vehicles.
참고문헌 (31)
- 곽재진, "국내 전기차 수요 분석 및 예측", 한국SCM 학회지, 20(1), pp.24~35
- 전기차 추전 인프라 확충 및 안전 강화방안, "국정현안관계장관회의", 환경부, ~ (2022)
- 자동차 보유대수 장기 전망에관한 연구, "박상준", 한국교통연구원, ~ (2012)
- 2050 탄소중립 추진전략, "제22차 비상경제 중앙대책본부회의", 기획재정부, ~ (2022)
- 채아롬, "선택기반 다세대 확산모형을 이용한 전기자동차 수요예측 방법론 개발", 한국ITS 학회 논문지, 10(5), pp.113~123 (2011)
- 전기자동차 보급의 에너지 수급영향 분석, "최도영", 에너지경제연구원, 1~6 (2012)
- 지역별 친환경차 시장 활성화 방안 연구: 인구밀 집지역을 중심으로, "한진석", 한국환경정책평가연구원, 1~163 (2017)
- 자동차보유대수 추정에 관한 기초연구, "황상규", 교통개발연구원, ~ (2000)
- Al-Alawi, B. M., "Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling studies", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, pp.190~203 (2013)
- Ayyadi, S., "Diffusion models for predicting electric vehicles market in Morocco", 2018International Conference and Exposition on Electrical And Power Engineering (EPE), pp.0046~0051 (2018), IEEE
- Bloomberg, "Electric Vehicle Outlook" (2023), BloombergNEF
- Clark, S. D., "Estimating local car ownership models", Journal of transport Geography, 15(3), pp.184~197 (2007)
- Dhakal, T., "Macro analysis and forecast of global expansion of electric vehicles", Foresight and STI Governance, 15(1), pp.67~73 (2021)
- Gompertz, B., "a letter to Francis Baily, Esq. FRS &c", pp.513~583 (1825), Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London
- Hörcher, D., "MaaS economics : Should we fight car ownership with subscriptions to alternative modes?", Economics of Transportation, 2020, pp.100167~ (2020)
- ICCT, "Vision 2050: A strategy to decarbonize the global transport sector by mid-century" (2020), International Council on Clean Transportation
- IEA, "Global EV Outlook", IEA, ~ (2023)
- ITF, "Transport Outlook", ITF, ~ (2023)
- Jong, G. D., "Comparison of car ownership models", Transport Reviews, 24(4), pp.379~408 (2004)
- Kumar, R. R., "Comparative assessment and selection of electric vehicle diffusion models : A global outlook", Energy, 238, pp.121932~ (2022)
- Li, X., "Prediction of electric vehicle ownership based on Gompertz model", 2014IEEE international conference on information and automation, pp.87~91 (2014)
- Liao, F., "Carsharing: the impact of system characteristics on its potential to replace private car trips and reduce car ownership", Transportation, 47, pp.935~970 (2020)
- Mulalic, I., "Does improving public transport decrease car ownership? Evidence from a residential sorting model for the Copenhagen metropolitan area", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 83, pp.103543~ (2020)
- Nolan, A., "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership", Transportation research part A: policy and practice, 44(6), pp.446~455 (2010)
- Park, C., "How much hydrogen should be supplied in the transportation market? Focusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demand in South Korea : Hydrogen demand and fuel cell vehicles in South Korea", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 181, pp.121750~ (2022)
- Reed, L. J., "On the summation of logistic curves", Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 90(4), pp.729~746 (1927)
- Rietmann, N., "Forecasting the trajectory of electric vehicle sales and the consequences for worldwide CO2 emissions", Journal of cleaner production, 261, pp.121038~ (2020)
- Sovacool, B. K., "The demographics of decarbonizing transport: The influence of gender, education, occupation, age, and household size on electric mobility preferences in the Nordic region", Global Environmental Change, 52, pp.86~100 (2018)
- Tjørve, K. M., "The use of Gompertz models in growth analyses, and new Gompertz-model approach : An addition to the Unified-Richards family", PloS one, 12(6), pp.e0178691~ (2017)
- Trappey, C. V., "An evaluation of the timevarying extended logistic, simple logistic, and Gompertz models for forecasting short product lifecycles", Advanced Engineering Informatics, 22(4), pp.421~430 (2008)
- Vassileva, I., "Adoption barriers for electric vehicles: Experiences from early adopters in Sweden", Energy, 120, pp.632~641 (2017)