불확실성을 고려한 교통투자시설 의사결정 방법론 연구: ITS기반 인프라 구축사업 사례 중심

Abstract

The traffic investment projects need to be long-term projects that take more than 20 years to complete from the planning stage. Thus, there are the chances of making long-term errors throughout all stage of traffic investment that will affect a society in the future, such as population growth. This uncertain and risky factors, called as uncertainty, becoming more important in decision making process of traffic investment. In an effort to address this problem, advanced overseas countries tend to adopt the robustness analysis (adaptability analysis) method instead of the deterministic analysis which is a conventional predict-then-act analysis in decision making process for public investment. Korea also has a growing need to devise risk management strategies to deal with future uncertainties. This study can use the method to develop a decision-making methodology for transportation investment and to evaluate domestic transportation investment projects in consideration of future-related uncertainties.