A Financial Ratio‐Based Predicting Model for Hotel Business Failure
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The purposes of this study were to find financial ratios that uniquely characterize failed hotel firms, and develop a multiple discriminant model which can predict business failure in the Korean hotel industry. Nine financial ratios that classify 86 hotel firms into failed and non‐failed groups were identified. Of these nine ratios, two, including debt ratio and fixed assets turnover ratio, were extracted and their prediction accuracy in terms of hit ratio was 91.9%. The model suggests that debt‐burdened firms with low fixed asset turnover ratio are more likely to fail. It means that a prudent debt financing policy is necessary to avoid business failure and fixed assets must be used effectively in order to maintain a viable enterprise. Prediction models for business failure are not homogeneous across all countries. Hotel investors and creditors can benefit from the model in screening out failing firms and lowering their investment risk.
Abstract
The purposes of this study were to find financial ratios that uniquely characterize failed hotel firms, and develop a multiple discriminant model which can predict business failure in the Korean hotel industry. Nine financial ratios that classify 86 hotel firms into failed and non‐failed groups were identified. Of these nine ratios, two, including debt ratio and fixed assets turnover ratio, were extracted and their prediction accuracy in terms of hit ratio was 91.9%. The model suggests that debt‐burdened firms with low fixed asset turnover ratio are more likely to fail. It means that a prudent debt financing policy is necessary to avoid business failure and fixed assets must be used effectively in order to maintain a viable enterprise. Prediction models for business failure are not homogeneous across all countries. Hotel investors and creditors can benefit from the model in screening out failing firms and lowering their investment risk.
참고문헌 (44)
- Altman, E. I., "Zeta analysis : a new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations", Journal of Banking and Finance, 1, pp.29~54 (1977)
- Altman, E. I., "Corporate financial distress and bankruptcy" (1993), John Wiley & Sons
- Altman, E. I., "A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question", The Journal of Finance, 39(4), pp.1067~1089 (1984)
- Altman, E. I., "Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy", Journal of Finance, 23, pp.589~607 (1968)
- Bettinger, C., "Bankruptcy prediction as a tool for commercial lenders", Journal of Commercial Bank Lending, 63, pp.18~28 (1981)
- Beaver, W. G., "Financial ratios as predictors of failure. Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies", Journal of Accounting Research, 5(Suppl.), pp.71~102 (1966)
- "More than 70% of lodging and restaurants firms fail within the first 5years" (2008)[URL]
- Choi, J. G., "The art of hotel business accounting" (2009), 21century publishing
- Choi, J. S., "Modern statistical analysis using SPSS Ver 10" (2000), Bokdu Publishing
- Cho, M., "Predicting business failure in the hospitality industry: an application of logit model", doctor, pp.1994
- Deakin, E. B., "A discriminant analysis of predictors of business failure", Journal of Accounting Research Spring, 10, pp.167~179 (1972)
- Dimitras, A. I., "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications", European Journal of Operational Research, 90(3), pp.487~513 (1996)
- Gu, Z., "Analyzing bankruptcy in the restaurant industry:A multiple discriminant model", International Journal of Hospitality Management, 21(1), pp.25~42 (2002)
- 허양회, "관광호텔산업에서의 부실예측모형개발에 관한 실증연구", 관광레저연구, 22(6), pp.253~270 (2010), (사)한국관광레저학회
- Hair, J. F., "Multivariate data analysis" (2010), Prentice Hall
- Jackson, B. B., "Multivariate Data Analysis: An Introduction" (1983), Richard D. Irwin, Inc
- 김시중, "호텔기업 부실예측모형의 예측력 비교연구", 관광학연구, 28(4), pp.9~26 (2005), 한국관광학회
- 김수영, "SVM-NN Hybrid모형을 활용한 호텔도산예측", 관광학연구, 35(8), pp.101~125 (2011), 한국관광학회
- 김수영, "다변량판별분석을 사용한 호텔도산예측에 관한 실증적 연구", 호텔경영학연구, 15(1), pp.103~120 (2006), 한국호텔외식관광경영학회
- Kim, H., "Predicting restaurant bankruptcy:A logit model in comparison with a discriminant model", Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 30(4), pp.474~493 (2006)
- Kwansa, F. A., "Business failure analysis:an events approach", Hospitality Research Journal (Proceedings of the 1991 Annual Conference of the Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education), pp.23~34 (1991)
- Lin, F., "The use of hybrid manifold learning and support vector machines in the prediction of business failure", Knowledge‐Based Systems, 24(1), pp.95~101 (2011)
- Mandelker, G., "The impact of the degrees of operating and financial leverage on systematic risk of common stock", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 19, pp.45~57 (1984)
- Annual Report of Tourism Trends, "Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism", ~ (2009)
- "Analysis of 2004‐2009establishment and bankrupt business" (2011)[URL]
- Olsen, M., "Improving the prediction of restaurant failure through ratio analysis", International Journal of Hospitality Management, 2, pp.187~193 (1983)
- Ohlson, J. A., "Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy", Journal of Accounting Research, 18(1), pp.109~131 (1980)
- "KIS industry outlook:Hotels" (2008)[URL]
- Platt, H. D., "The determinants of inter‐industry failure", Journal of economic and business, 41, pp.107~126 (1989)
- Ravi Kumar, P., "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques –A review", European Journal of Operational Research, 180(1), pp.1~28 (2007)
- Rutledge, J., "Restructuring: unload those assets", Chief Executive, 33, pp.36~38 (1985)
- Schwartz, K., "Auditor switches by failed firms", The Accountinq Review, 60, pp.248~261 (1985)
- Skalpe, O., "Hotel and restaurants‐are the risks rewarded? Evidence from Norway", Journal of Tourism Management, 24, pp.623~634 (2003)
- Van Horne, J., "Financial management and policy" (1977), Prentice‐Hall
- Wight, C., "Business failures: early diagnosis and remedies", The Australian Account, 55, pp.30~39 (1985)
- Youn, H., "Predicting Korean lodging firm failures: An artificial neural network model along with a logistic regression model", International Journal of Hospitality Management, 29(1), pp.120~127 (2010)
- Youn, H., "Predicting US restaurant firm failures:the artificial neural network model versus logistic regression model", Tourism and Hospitality Research, 10(3), pp.171~187 (2010)
- "Wikipedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Wikipedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Wikipedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Investopedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Investopedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Investopedia" (2012)[URL]
- "Investopedia" (2012)[URL]