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Is Expert Input Valuable? The Case of Predicting Surgery Duration

김송희|Rouba Ibrahim
경영연구소 (Management Research Center)|2019.12|Seoul Journal of Business|제25권 제2호|pp. 1-34|DOI 10.35152/snusjb.2019.25.2.001

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키워드

operating roomdiscretionhealthcare operationspredicting surgery durationexpert input

초록

Most data-driven decision support tools do not include input from people. We study whether and how to incorporate physician input into such tools, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration. Using data from a hospital, we evaluate and compare the performances of three families of models: models with physician forecasts, purely data-based models, and models that combine physician forecasts and data. We find that combined models perform the best, which suggests that physician forecasts have valuable information above and beyond what is captured by data. We also find that applying simple corrections to physician forecasts performs comparably well.

Abstract

Most data-driven decision support tools do not include input from people. We study whether and how to incorporate physician input into such tools, in an empirical setting of predicting the surgery duration. Using data from a hospital, we evaluate and compare the performances of three families of models: models with physician forecasts, purely data-based models, and models that combine physician forecasts and data. We find that combined models perform the best, which suggests that physician forecasts have valuable information above and beyond what is captured by data. We also find that applying simple corrections to physician forecasts performs comparably well.

참고문헌 (34)

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