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기후변화 시나리오에 의한 까치박달(Carpinus cordata)의 자생지 분포 예측

Predicting the Natural Habitat of Carpinus cordata Based on Climate Change Scenarios

허권|장채민
한국환경영향평가학회 (Korean Society Of Environmental Impact Assessment)|2024.12|환경영향평가 (Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment)|제33권 제6호|pp. 319-334|DOI 10.14249/eia.2024.33.6.319

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기후변수MaxEnt modelCarpinus cordata까치박달기후 민감성멕센트 모형잠재 자생지종 분포 예측Climate sensitivityClimate variablesPotential habitatSpecies distribution predict
주제분류환경공학

초록

본 연구는 한반도에 분포하는 까치박달의 현재 및 잠재 자생지를 예측하고, 기후변화 시나리오에 의한자생지 변화와 민감성을 평가하였다. MaxEnt 모형을 이용하여 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 시나리오에 따른 까치박달의잠재 자생지를 예측하고, 기후변화에 따른 자생지 감소 및 분포이동 유형을 분석하였다. 연구 결과 기온 및 강수량 등 주요 기후변수가 까치박달 자생지 변화에 중대한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으며, 특히 현재의 추세대로 온실가스를 배출하는 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서는 온실가스 감축 정책이 일정 부분 실현되는 RCP 4.5 시나리오보다 까치박달의 자생지 감소가 가속화되었다. 이러한 결과는 기후변화에 대응한 까치박달의 보전 전략 수립이시급함을 시사하며, 기후변화 민감성이 높은 종의 자생지 보전을 위한 정책적 대응이 필요함을 강조한다. 본 연구는 한반도 내 기후변화에 따른 생물다양성 보전 및 관리 방안을 마련하는 데 중요한 기초자료를 제공한다.

Abstract

This study predicts the current and future native habitats of Carpinus cordata on the Korean Peninsula and assesses the sensitivity of native habitat changes and vulnerability to climate change scenarios. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the potential native habitats of Carpinus cordata under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and analyzed native habitat shrinkage and climate zone shift patterns due to climate change. The study found that major climate variables such as temperature and precipitation had a significant impact on the changes in the native habitat of Carpinus cordata, and in particular, the RCP 8.5 scenario, which emits greenhouse gases according to the current trend, accelerated the reduction in the habitat of Carpinus cordata was accelerated compared to the RCP 4.5 scenario, in which the greenhouse gas reduction policy was partially realized. These results suggest an urgent need to develop conservation strategies for Carpinus cordata in response to climate change, and emphasise the need for a policy response to conserve the native habitats of climate-sensitive species. This study provides an important basis for developing biodiversity conservation and management plans to cope with climate change on the Korean Peninsula.

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