Developing Parameters of Forecasting Models in the Field of Distribution Science to Forecast Vietnamese Seafarer Resources
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Purpose: Maritime sector is fundamental to international trade; there is no doubt that seafarers have played an essential role in maritime shipping and distribution science industry. Thus, this study uses Grey models to predict the number of seafarers in Vietnam expecting to provide a range of future seafarers. Research design, data and methodology: Statistics data are adopted for numbers of seafarers by Vietnam Maritime Administration categorizing into three types: Officers at Management level, Officers at Operational level and Navigation - Engine officer cadet. Results: The results have showed that a lack of qualified seafarers in the distribution industry, which has become a global issue and Vietnam is facing challenges of providing enough supply of seafarers in the next few years. Since there has been a concern of the unbalance between demand and supply of seafarers, researches in maritime sector needs a high accuracy in forecasting the number of available qualified seafarers in Vietnam. Conclusion: This method can be applied to predict numbers of other human resources in transportation, distribution and/or logistics industries when the information is poor and insufficient. The next few years are predicted to witness a downtrend in sailors - oilers which leads to the fact that the total number of available seafarers is decreased.
Abstract
Purpose: Maritime sector is fundamental to international trade; there is no doubt that seafarers have played an essential role in maritime shipping and distribution science industry. Thus, this study uses Grey models to predict the number of seafarers in Vietnam expecting to provide a range of future seafarers. Research design, data and methodology: Statistics data are adopted for numbers of seafarers by Vietnam Maritime Administration categorizing into three types: Officers at Management level, Officers at Operational level and Navigation - Engine officer cadet. Results: The results have showed that a lack of qualified seafarers in the distribution industry, which has become a global issue and Vietnam is facing challenges of providing enough supply of seafarers in the next few years. Since there has been a concern of the unbalance between demand and supply of seafarers, researches in maritime sector needs a high accuracy in forecasting the number of available qualified seafarers in Vietnam. Conclusion: This method can be applied to predict numbers of other human resources in transportation, distribution and/or logistics industries when the information is poor and insufficient. The next few years are predicted to witness a downtrend in sailors - oilers which leads to the fact that the total number of available seafarers is decreased.
참고문헌 (45)
- Bo, Z., "Development and Application of MSGT6. 0 (Modeling System of Grey Theory 6.0) Based on Visual C# and XML", Journal of Grey System, 23(2) (2011)
- Chia-Nan, W., "Forecasting The Manpower Requirement in Vietnamese Tertiary Institutions", Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 3(5), pp.563~575 (2013)
- Day, A., "Mastering Financial Modelling in Microsoft Excel" (2013), Pearson UK
- Deng, J. L, "Introduction to Grey System Theory", The Journal of Grey System, (1), pp.1~24 (1989)
- Deng, J. L., "Introduction to grey system theory", The Journal of grey system, 1(1), pp.1~24 (1989)
- Fei, J., "Analysis of students’ perceptions of seafaring career in China based on artificial neural network and genetic programming", Maritime Policy &Management, 42(2), pp.111~126 (2015)
- Ahmad FIRMAN, "Re-conceptualization of Business Model for Marketing Nowadays: Theory and Implications", The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(7), pp.279~291 (2020), 한국유통과학회
- Guo, J. L., "An influence model in seafaring choice for Taiwan navigation students", Maritime Policy & Management, 33(4), pp.403~421 (2006)
- Härmä, M., "Effects of 6", 6 and 4, Chronobiology international, pp.2008, 25(2-3)[DOI]
- Asmara INDAHINGWATI, "How Digital Technology Driven Millennial Consumer Behaviour in Indonesia", 유통과학연구, 17(8), pp.25~34 (2019), 한국유통과학회[DOI]
- Dong-Bin Jeong, "계절형 ARIMA-Intervention 모형을 이용한 한국 편의점 최적 매출예측", 유통과학연구, 14(11), pp.83~90 (2016), 한국유통과학회[DOI]
- Seung-Yeon LIM, "The Effect of SG&A on Analyst Forecasts and the Case of Distribution Industries", 유통과학연구, 17(10), pp.41~48 (2019), 한국유통과학회[DOI]
- Liu, S., "InGrey Systems", pp.287~302 (2011), Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Liu, S., "Grey systems: theory and applications (Vol. 68)" (2010), Springer
- Lobrigo, E., "Maritime policy and the seafaring labor market", WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 14(1), pp.123~139 (2015)
- 남혜정, "The Effect of Earnings Quality on Financial Analysts’ Dividend Forecast Accuracy: Evidence from Korea", The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 6(4), pp.91~98 (2019), 한국유통과학회
- Nhu-Ty NGUYEN, "The Influence of Celebrity Endorsement on Young Vietnamese Consumers’ Purchasing Intention", The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(1), pp.951~960 (2021), 한국유통과학회
- Nhu-Ty Nguyen, "Optimizing Factors for Accuracy of Forecasting Models in Food Processing Industry: A Context of Cacao Manufacturers in Vietnam", Industrial Engineering & Management Systems, 18(4), pp.808~824 (2019), 대한산업공학회[DOI]
- Nguyen, N. T., "Applying DEA Model to Measure the Efficiency of Hospitality Sector : The Case of Vietnam", International Journal of Analysis and Applications, 17(6), pp.994~1018 (2019)
- Nguyen, N. T., "Mathematical development and evaluation of forecasting models for accuracy of inflation in developing countries: a case of Vietnam", Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society (2015)
- Nguyen, N. T., "Facilitating an advanced product layout to prioritize hot lots in 450 mm wafer foundry in the semiconductor industry", International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 3(6), pp.14~23 (2016)
- Nguyen, N. T., "A Study of the Strategic Alliance for Vietnam Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry: A Dynamic Integration of A Hybrid DEA and GM (1, 1)Approach", Journal of Grey System, 30(4) (2018)
- Nguyen, N. T., "A two-stage study of grey system theory and DEA in strategic alliance : An application in Vietnamese fertilizing industry", International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 5(9), pp.73~81 (2018)
- Nguyen, N. T., "Raising opportunities in strategic alliance by evaluating efficiency of logistics companies in Vietnam : a case of Cat Lai Port", Neural Computing and Applications, 31(11), pp.7963~7974 (2019)
- Nhu-Ty NGUYEN, "Purchase Behavior of Young Consumers Toward Green Packaged Products in Vietnam", The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(1), pp.985~996 (2021), 한국유통과학회
- Nguyen, N. T., "Optimization of strategic alliances by integrating DEA and grey model", Journal of Grey System, 27(1), pp.38~ (2015)
- Nhu-Ty Nguyen, "Performance Evaluation in Strategic Alliances: A Case of Vietnamese Construction Industry", Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, 21(1), pp.85~99 (2019), Springer Science and Business Media LLC[DOI]
- Nguyen, P., "Using optimization algorithms of DEA and Grey system theory in strategic partner selection : An empirical study in Vietnam steel industry", Cogent Business & Management, 7(1), pp.1832810~ (2020)
- Trong Thanh NGUYEN, "Current Challenges in the Recruitment and Retention of Seafarers: An Industry Perspective from Vietnam", The Asian Journal of Shipping and Logistics, 30(2), pp.217~244 (2014), 한국해운물류학회
- 박영은, "Predicting Arab Consumers’ Preferences on the Korean Contents Distribution", 유통과학연구, 15(4), pp.33~40 (2017), 한국유통과학회[DOI]
- Pham, L.H.T, "On the factors affecting start-up intention of Millennials in Vietnam", International Journal of Advanced and Applied Sciences, 6(1), pp.1~8 (2019)
- Ruggunan, S., "Pursuing a career at sea : an empirical profile of South African cadets and implications for career awareness", Maritime Policy & Management, 44(3), pp.289~303 (2017)
- Quoc Trung TRINH, "Determinants of Vietnam Government Bond Yield Volatility: A GARCH Approach", The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(7), pp.15~25 (2020), 한국유통과학회
- Hashem Valipour, "Predicting Audit Reports Using Meta-Heuristic Algorithms", 유통과학연구, 11(6), pp.13~19 (2013), 한국유통과학회[DOI]
- Wang, C. N., "Integrated DEA Models and Grey System Theory to Evaluate Past-toFuture Performance : A Case of Indian Electricity Industry", The Scientific World Journal, 2014 (2014)
- Wang, C. N., "Integrated DEA models and grey system theory to evaluate past-to-future performance : a case of Indian electricity industry", The Scientific World Journal, 2015 (2015)
- Wang, C. N., "A Study of the Strategic Alliance for EMS Industry: The Application of a Hybrid DEA and GM (1, 1) Approach", The Scientific World Journal, 2014 (2014)
- Wang, L. W., "An Empirical Study of Hybrid DEA and Grey System Theory on Analyzing Performance : A Case from Indian Mining Industry", Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2014 (2014)
- Wang, L. W., "An analysis of manpower in Vietnamese undergraduate educational system", International Journal of Economics, Business and Finance, 1(1), pp.398~408 (2013)
- Wang, W. L., "Labor Demand and Supply in Vietnam : The Medium to Long-Term Forecasts", Research in World Economy, 5(2), pp.99~114 (2014)
- Wen, K. L., "A Matlab toolbox for grey clustering and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation", Advances in Engineering Software, 39(2), pp.137~145 (2008)
- Wen, K. L., "The research and development of completed GM (1, 1) model toolbox using Matlab", International Journal of Computational Cognition, 3(3), pp.42~48 (2005)
- Wen, K. L., "Apply MATLAB in grey system theory" (2006), Chuan Hwa Book CO., LTD
- Xuemeng, W., "Software Packages of Gray System Model for Forecast and Decision-Making", ~ (1986)
- You, M. L., "The development of completed grey relational analysis toolbox via Matlab", Journal of Grey System, 9(1), pp.57~64 (2006)