Russia’s Place in the Changing Strategic Triangle in the Post-Cold War Northeast Asia: From an Outcast to a Strategic Player?
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper is an attempt to analyze Russia’s regional political place and power in Northeast Asia through the US-China-Russia triangularity and to forecast the future of Russia’s place in the region by applying the basic logic and concepts of social network theory such as “social capital” and “structural hole.” From Russia’s perspective, the structural hole that formulated as a result of its own de-link strategy in the 1990s has developed into a determining factor in disabling Russia from regaining its position and influence in the Northeast Asian region. To overcome this obstacle, Russia has continuously developed its diplomatic strategies and reviewed the potential for cooperating with the US. Nonetheless, the US-Russian rivalry and competition at the global level is severely damaging an opportunity for the coming of a stable and cooperative order in Northeast Asia. However, the works of the US utilizing Russia without excluding China, and establishment of a vision for a regional order in the context of fostering stability and cooperation will become an utmost important factor in developing peace and co-prosperity in Northeast Asia. A sort of a semi-triangulairty among the US-China-Russia seems more beneficial for regional stability and cooperation.
Abstract
This paper is an attempt to analyze Russia’s regional political place and power in Northeast Asia through the US-China-Russia triangularity and to forecast the future of Russia’s place in the region by applying the basic logic and concepts of social network theory such as “social capital” and “structural hole.” From Russia’s perspective, the structural hole that formulated as a result of its own de-link strategy in the 1990s has developed into a determining factor in disabling Russia from regaining its position and influence in the Northeast Asian region. To overcome this obstacle, Russia has continuously developed its diplomatic strategies and reviewed the potential for cooperating with the US. Nonetheless, the US-Russian rivalry and competition at the global level is severely damaging an opportunity for the coming of a stable and cooperative order in Northeast Asia. However, the works of the US utilizing Russia without excluding China, and establishment of a vision for a regional order in the context of fostering stability and cooperation will become an utmost important factor in developing peace and co-prosperity in Northeast Asia. A sort of a semi-triangulairty among the US-China-Russia seems more beneficial for regional stability and cooperation.
참고문헌 (64)
- Burt, R. S., "Structural Holes: The Social Structure of Competition" (1992), Harvard University Press
- Burt, R. S., "Brokerage and Closure: An Introduction to Social Capital" (2005), Oxford University Press
- Buszynski, Leszek, "Russia and Northeast Asia : Aspirations and Reality", The Pacific Review, 13(3), pp.399~420 (2001)
- Buszynski, Leszek, "Russia and North Korea: Dilemmas and Interests", Asian Survey, 49(5) (2009)
- Cheng, Joseph Y. S, "Chinese Perceptions of Russian Foreign Policy During the Putin Administration : US-Russia Relations and ‘Strategic Triangle’ Considerations", Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 38(2), pp.145~168 (2009)
- Choo, Jaewoo, "Mirroring North Korea’s Growing Economic Dependence on China: Political Ramifications", Asian Survey, 48(2) (2008)
- Christensen, Thomas J, "Fostering Stability or Creating a Monster? The Rise of China and US Policy toward East Asia", International Security, 21(1), pp.81~126 (2006)
- Chung, Jae Ho, "China and Northeast Asia : A Complex Equation for ‘Peaceful Rise’", Politics, 27(3), pp.156~164 (2007)
- Clinton, Bill, "A Strategic Alliance With Russian Reform", US Department of State Dispatch, 4(14) (1993)
- Collins, Kathleen A, "Strategic Asia 2003-04: Fragility and Crisis", pp.291~318 (2003), The National Bureau of Asian Research
- Cox, Michael, "The Necessary Partnership?: The Clinton Presidency and Post-Soviet Russia", International Affairs, 70(4) (1994)
- De Haas, Marcel, "Russia’s New Military Doctrine: A Compromise Document", Russian Analytical Digest, 78 (2010)
- Dimitrakopoulou, Sophia, "Russia’s National Security Strategy to 2020: A Great Power in the Making?", Caucasian Review of International Affairs, 4(1) (2010)
- Dynkin, A., "Strategicheskiy globalyi prognos" (2011), IMEMO RAN
- Dittmer, Lowell, "The Strategic Triangle : An Elementary Game-Theoretical Analysis", World Politics, 33, pp.484~515 (1981)
- Dittmer, Lowell, "The Sino-Japanese-Russian Triangle", Journal of Chinese Political Science, 10(1), pp.1~25 (2005)
- Russian-Chinese-US Relations and Security in the Asia-Pacific Region, "Ferry, William E.", Russian, 1~20 (1997)
- Friedberg, Aaron L., "The Future of US-China Relations: Is Conflict Inevitable?", International Security, 30(2), pp.7~45 (2005)
- Goddard. Stacie E., "Brokering Change : Networks and Entrepreneurs in International Politics", International Theory, 1(2), pp.249~281 (2009)
- Goldthau, Andreas, "Resurgent Russia? Rethinking Energy Inc.: Five Myths about the ‘Energy Superpower’", Policy Review, 147, pp.1~11 (2008)
- Ha, Young-Chool, "The Development of Russian Far East and Eastern Siberia and the Future of Northeast Asia", Пространственная Экономика, (2) (2013), Economic Research institute
- Hafner-Burton, "Network Analysis for International Relations", International Organization, 63, pp.559~592 (2009)
- Kathleen J. Hancock, "Russia: Great Power Image versus Economic Reality", Asian Perspective, 31(4), pp.71~98 (2007), 극동문제연구소
- Haukkala, Hiski, "The Myth of a Sino-Russian Challenge to the West", The International Spectator, 44(3), pp.59~76 (2009)
- Itoh, Shoichi, "Security Challenges in the Post-Soviet Space: European and Asian Perspectives", pp.79~100 (2007), Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Iwashita, Akihiro, "Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia, Vol. 1 Russia and Its Neighbors in Crisis", pp.165~194 (2007), Slavic Research Center
- Karaganov, Sergei, "Russia’s Asian Strategy", Russia in Global Affairs (2011)
- Kerr, David, "The Sino-Russian Partnership and US Policy Toward North Korea : From Hegemony to Concert in Northeast Asia", International Studies Quarterly, 49, pp.411~437 (2005)
- Kim, Younkyoo, "Russia and the Six-Party Process in Korea : Moscow’s Quest for Great Power Status", Problems of Post-Communism, 57(4), pp.37~50 (2010)
- 고정식, "Chinese Northern Province Development Policy and Economic Cooperation with North Korea", 한중사회과학연구, 9(3), pp.285~311 (2011), 한중사회과학학회
- 구정모, "Northeast Asian Economic Cooperation -Assessment and Prospects of the Greater Tumen Initiative-", 동북아경제연구, 24(2), pp.313~353 (2012), 한국동북아경제학회
- Lavrov, Sergei, "The Rise of Asia, and the Eastern Vector of Russia’s Foreign Policy", Russia in Global Affairs, 4(3), pp.68~80 (2006)
- Lo, Bobo, "A Fine Balance-The Strange Case of Sino-Russian Relations", Russie. Cei. Visions, 1, pp.1~11 (2005)
- MacFarlane, S. Neil, "The ‘R’ in BRICs: is Russia an Emerging Power?", International Affairs, 82(1), pp.41~57 (2006)
- Mao, Huei-Ming, "The US-China-Russia Strategic Triangle Relationship-Since the Beginnig of the Bush Administration", Tamkang Journal of International Affairs, 8(3), pp.77~113 (2005)
- Maoz, Zeev, "Structural Equivalence and International Conflict : A Social Network Analysis", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 50(5), pp.664~689 (2006)
- Maoz, Zeev, "Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816-2001" (2001), Cambridge University Press
- Meyer, P. F., "The Russian Far East’s Economic Integration with Northeast Asia: Problems and Prospects", Pacific Affairs, 72(2) (1999)
- Mikheev, V. V, "Integratsionnoe prostranstvo Vostochnoi Azii i Rossiya (Integration Space in East Asia and Russia)", Prostranstvennaya Ekonomika, (2) (2005)
- Miller, J. B., "Abe’s North Korean Advances: Why Japan Has the United States and South Korea Worried", Foreign Affairs (2014)
- Russian Security Strategy under Putin: US and Russian Perspectives, "Nation, C. R", Strategic Studies Institute, ~ (2007)
- Norling, Nicklas, "China and Russia : Partners with Tensions", Policy Perspectives, 40(1), pp.33~48 (2007)
- Pan, Zhenqiang, "On the US-Russia-China Triangle" (2006), Shanghai Institute for International Strategic Studies
- Rangsimaporn, Paradorn, "Interpretations of Eurasianism : Justifying Russia’s Role in East Asia", Europe-Asia Studies, 58(3), pp.371~389 (2006)
- Roseman, Gilbert, "Anew Sino-Russian-American Triangle?", Orbis, (Fall) (2000)
- Russia’s Interests in the Context of Asia-Pacific Region Security and Development, "Russian International Affairs Council", RIAC, ~ (2012)
- Saneev, B. G., "The Eastern Vector as a Priority Area for the Development of the Russian Energy Sector in the First Half of the 21st Century", Regional Research of Russia, 1(1) (2011)
- The Changing Order in Northeast Asia and the Prospects for US-Japan-China-Korea Relations, "Scalapino, R. A.", Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, ~ (1998)
- Sevastyanov, S. B, "Rol novykx rossiiskikh infrastrukturnykh proektov v obespechenii energeticheskoi besopasnosti Severo-Bostochnoi Azii", Oikumena, (1) (2012)
- Russia’s Return to Asia: How Should South Korea Respond?, "Shin, Beom-Shik", East Asia Institute, ~, pp.EAI Issue Briefing No. MASI 2011-09 (2011)
- Shin, Beom-Shik, "US-Russian Cooperation in Northeast Asia for the Asia-Pacific Era", The 14th World Korean Forum (2013)
- New Dynamics in Northeast Asia: The Russian Factor, "Shkuropat, Anna V.", The Brookings Institute Center for Northeast Asia Studies, 1~38 (2002)
- Camilla T. N. Soerensen, "STRATEGIC “TRIANGULARITY” IN NORTHEAST ASIA: THE SINO-JAPANESE SECURITY RELATIONSHIP ANDU.S. POLICY", Asian Perspective, 30(3), pp.99~128 (2006), 극동문제연구소
- Talmadge, Eric, "Why Russia is Bolstering Ties with North Korea", The Guardian, ~ (2014)
- Thompson, William R, "Principal Rivalries", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39(2), pp.195~224 (1995)
- Toloraya, G., "North Korea—A Key to the Asia-Pacific Region", RIAC, ~ (2012)
- Tsygankov, A., "The Russian-American Partnership? The ‘Russia Threat’ and the US Critics of the ‘Reset’ (in Russian)", Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta: Politologiya, 6 (2010)
- Vladai Discussion Club, "Toward the Great Ocean, or the New Globalization of Russia", Valdaiclub.com, ~ (2012)
- Voskressenski, Alexei D, "Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia: Russia and its Eastern Edge 2", pp.3~46 (2007), Slavic Research Center
- Vradiy, S. Yu, "Regionalny aspekt rossiisko-kitiskikh otnoshenii", Oikumena, (4) (2011)
- Weitz, Richard, "Why Russia and China Have Not Formed an Anti-American Alliance", Naval War College Review, 56(4), pp.39~61 (2003)
- Seongji Woo, "Triangle Research and Understanding Northeast Asian Politics", Asian Perspective, 27(2), pp.33~63 (2003), 극동문제연구소
- Wu, Yu-Shan, "Power Shift, Strategic Triangle, and Alliances in East Asia", Issues & Studies, 47(4), pp.1~41 (2011)
- Ziegler, C. E., "Russia in the Asia-Pacific: A Major Power or Minor Participant?", Asian Survey, 34(6) (1994)
