Twin Paths, Divergent Outcomes: Foreign Aid and the Development Gap between Burundi and Rwanda
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The development divergence between Burundi and Rwanda, two nations often described as “twin countries,” presents an intriguing case for comparative analysis via the method of difference. While most scholarship attributes Rwanda’s success to its effective institutions and strong leadership, this study introduces an additional and underexplored explanation: the role of aid volumes. Employing pattern matching of a structured, focused comparative case study design and drawing on data from OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) from 1992 to 2022, this study finds that Rwanda consistently received substantially more aid than Burundi, even when both countries experienced similar post-conflict fragility and institutional weaknesses. The findings align with the big push theory, which posits that large-scale aid is crucial for countries mired in poverty to initiate growth. Building on this, the study proposes a three- stage aid-development pathway: (1) high aid inflows, (2) enhanced fiscal capacity and institutional consolidation for effective governance, and (3) sustainable growth leading to partial aid graduation.
Abstract
The development divergence between Burundi and Rwanda, two nations often described as “twin countries,” presents an intriguing case for comparative analysis via the method of difference. While most scholarship attributes Rwanda’s success to its effective institutions and strong leadership, this study introduces an additional and underexplored explanation: the role of aid volumes. Employing pattern matching of a structured, focused comparative case study design and drawing on data from OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS) and the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) from 1992 to 2022, this study finds that Rwanda consistently received substantially more aid than Burundi, even when both countries experienced similar post-conflict fragility and institutional weaknesses. The findings align with the big push theory, which posits that large-scale aid is crucial for countries mired in poverty to initiate growth. Building on this, the study proposes a three- stage aid-development pathway: (1) high aid inflows, (2) enhanced fiscal capacity and institutional consolidation for effective governance, and (3) sustainable growth leading to partial aid graduation.