Dollarization or Monetary Independence? Evidence from Venezuela
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In the theoretical debate about the benefits of rigid exchange rate regimes, dollarization stands out as a strictly fixed scheme that is used to recover the confidence in the local monetary authority, allow the reduction of inflation, and achieve price stability in countries that adopt it. Venezuela, having monetary authorities with high inflationary bias and being in a phase of instability and volatility of its productive activity, is a good candidate for dollarizing its economy. Given this possibility, this paper identifies whether dollarization is the monetary-exchange regime that currently best suits the Venezuelan economy. We perform an empirical analysis of the costs and benefits of replacing the Bolívar with the U.S. dollar. The empirical evidence tells us that dollarization in Venezuela is undesirable because the benefits in terms of economic growth and low inflation might be limited due to the high costs derived from the low correlation between macroeconomic aggregates of both countries.
Abstract
In the theoretical debate about the benefits of rigid exchange rate regimes, dollarization stands out as a strictly fixed scheme that is used to recover the confidence in the local monetary authority, allow the reduction of inflation, and achieve price stability in countries that adopt it. Venezuela, having monetary authorities with high inflationary bias and being in a phase of instability and volatility of its productive activity, is a good candidate for dollarizing its economy. Given this possibility, this paper identifies whether dollarization is the monetary-exchange regime that currently best suits the Venezuelan economy. We perform an empirical analysis of the costs and benefits of replacing the Bolívar with the U.S. dollar. The empirical evidence tells us that dollarization in Venezuela is undesirable because the benefits in terms of economic growth and low inflation might be limited due to the high costs derived from the low correlation between macroeconomic aggregates of both countries.
참고문헌 (26)
- Arguello, C., "Dolarización y su impacto en exportaciones y tasa de interés", master, Instituto de Economía, pp.2007
- Castellano, A., "La demanda de dinero y la sustitución de monedas y de activos en Venezuela: 1997-2008", Revista Economía, XXXVII(34), pp.89~120 (2012)
- Clarida, R., "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective", Journal of Economic Literature, XXXVII, pp.1661~1707 (1999)
- Furceri, D., "Is the Middle East an Optimum Currency Area? A Comparison of Costs and Benefits", Open Economies Review, 19(4), pp.479~491 (2008)[DOI]
- "“A Dollarization Blueprint for Argentina,”Friedberg’s Commodity and Currency Comments Experts’ Report" (1999)[URL]
- Hurtado, A., "Integración monetaria en el MERCOSUR: Análisis de alternativas a partir de la Teoría de las Áreas Monetarias Óptimas", doctoral, pp.2017
- Hurtado, A., "Misión Alimentación: Origen, evolución e impacto", pp.53~95 (2016), CDCHTA-ULA
- "“Post-war U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Discussion Papers 451" (1981)[URL]
- "The Prospect of Dollarization: Are the Americas an Optimum Currency Area?" (2000)[URL]
- GeorgiosKarras, "Cost and Benefits of Dollarization : Evidence from north, central, and south America", Journal of Economic Integration, 17(3), pp.502~516 (2002), 경제통합연구소
- Karras, G., "How Homogenizing are Monetary Unions? Evidence from the U.S. States", North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 14(3), pp.381~397 (2003)
- Karras, G., "Is There a Yen Optimum Currency Area? Evidence from 18 Asian and Pacific Economies", Japan and the World Economy, 17(4), pp.456~469 (2005)
- Karras, G., "Optimal Stabilization Policy in a Monetary Union: Implications of the Mankiw-Weinzierl Model", International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 5(2), pp.139~152 (2012)
- "“A Fortran Subroutine for Efficiently Computing HP-filtered Time Series,” Research Memorandum" (1989)[URL]
- León, A., "Convergencia, moneda única y dolarización: Quo vadis?", Revista Venezolana de Análisis de Coyuntura, VI(2), pp.151~173 (2000)
- Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Performance, "Levy-Yeyati, E.", UTDT, ~, pp.CIF Working Paper, 02 (2001), 2001
- Levy, S., "Reflexiones sobre alternativas monetarias", cambiarias con miras a una integración monetaria de América del Sur, 2003, pp.IX(1), 41~64
- Mora, J. U., "¿Dolarización individual o moneda común?: Evidencia para los países suramericanos", Revista Aportes para la Integración Latinoamericana, XII(14), pp.88~106 (2006)
- Moran, B., "Dollarization in El Salvador and Ecuador: A Model Worth Following?", master, pp.2016
- Purroy, M. I., "La utopía de la moneda común: El debate sobre integración monetaria y régimen cambiario" (2014), CreateSpaceIndependent Publishing Platform
- "“Fundamentos de la dolarización,” Reporte del Comité de Asuntos Económicos del Congreso de los Estados Unidos" (1999)[URL]
- Sierra, L. P., "¿Qué sabemos sobre la dolarización y sus efectos en las economías latinoamericanas que la adoptaron?", Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas: Investigación y Reflexión, XVIII(1), pp.119~132 (2010)
- "La dolarización como opción de política monetaria en Venezuela:Aproximación desde un análisis costo-beneficio, Caracas" (2015)[URL]
- White, L., "Dolarización y libertad monetaria", Polémika, 11(5), pp.61~80 (2017)
- "World Development Indicators"[URL]
- "Estabilización, crecimiento y política cambiaria en Venezuela" (2018)[URL]