유선기반 역산과 생산량기반 거리를 이용한 저류층거동의 불확실성 평가
Uncertainty Assessment of Reservoir Performances using Streamline Based Inversion and Production Based Distance
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
저류층특성화와 불확실성 정량화는 의사결정을 위한 필수과정이다. 불확실성 정량화는 다수의 모델을 계산하며 각 모델의 최적화가 요구되기 때문에 많은 계산이 필요하다. 또한 저류층유체의 유동은 매우 비선형적이며 히스토리매칭은 수학적으로 잘 정립되지 못한 문제이다. 본 연구에서는 생산량기반 거리와 generalized travel time inversion(GTTI)을 이용하여 빠르게 불확실성을 정량화하는 방법을 제시하였다. 먼저 필드 누적물생산량에 따라 비슷한 필드를 군집화하였다. 이후 K-평균 군집화를 실시하여 대표모델을 선택하고 대표모델에 대해 역산을 실시하였다. 역산 시 GTTI 알고리즘을 적용하여 계산효율 및 준선형성의 이점을 활용하였다. 제시된 방법은 기존의 방법에 비해 불확실성을 신뢰성 있게 정량화하면서도 계산량을 획기적으로 줄인 것을 확인하였다.
Abstract
Reservoir characterization and uncertainty assessment are indispensable for decision making. Uncertainty quantification requires high computational costs because multiple models are simulated and optimizations should be performed on each model. In addition, fluid flow in a reservoir exhibits highly nonlinear characteristics, and history matching is mathematically an ill-posed problem. In this study, we propose a methodology to rapidly quantify uncertainties by using flow based distance and generalized travel time inversion(GTTI). Firstly, we group similar models according to cumulative field water production. Representative models are selected from each group after applying K-means clustering. Then inversions are performed on the representative models to quantify uncertainties. We use GTTI algorithm to take advantage of computational efficiency and quasilinearity. Compared to a conventional method, the proposed method reduces the amount of calculations significantly, while reliably assessing the uncertainty.
참고문헌 (19)
- Cheng, H., "Field Experiences with Assisted and Automatic History Matching Using Streamline Models", Paper SPE 89857 presented at Proc. of the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition (2004)
- Cheng, H., "Fast History Matching of Finite-difference Models Using Streamline-derived Sensitivities", SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering, 8(5), pp.426~436 (2005)
- Choe, J., "Geostatistics" (2007), SigmaPress
- Datta-Gupta, A., "Streamline Simulation: a Technology Update", J. of Petroleum Technology, 52(12), pp.68~73 (2000)
- Gao, G., "Quantifying Uncertainty for the PUNQ-S3 Problem in a Bayesian Setting with RML and EnKF", Paper SPE 93324 presented at Proc. of the SPE Reservoir Simulation Symposium (2005)
- He, Z., "Streamline-based Production Data Integration with Gravity and Changing Field Conditions", SPE J., 7(4), pp.423~436 (2002)
- Jang, M., "Modeling of Contaminant Transport in a Fracture Using Streamline Simulation", J. of the Korean Society of Mineral and Energy Resources Engineers, 38(3), pp.202~210 (2001)
- 진정우, "Metric Space Mapping of Oil Sands Reservoirs Using Streamline Simulation", Geosystem Engineering, 14(3), pp.109~113 (2011), 한국자원공학회
- 정승필, "유선시뮬레이션 조력 앙상블칼만필터를 이용한 히스토리매칭의 수치안정성 개선", 한국자원공학회지, 46(4), pp.453~465 (2009), 한국자원공학회
- 기세일, "확률적 민감도분석을 이용한 역산모델링", 한국자원공학회지, 46(1), pp.1~10 (2009), 한국자원공학회
- Kitanidis, P. K., "Quasilinear Geostatistical Theory for Inversing", Water Resources Research, 31(10), pp.2411~2419 (1995)
- Oliver, D.S., "Inverse Theory for Petroleum Reservoir Characterization and History Matching" (2008), Cambridge University Press
- 박광원, "대수층 특성화를 위한 관측정 분포 최적화", 한국자원공학회지, 41(5), pp.373~380 (2004), 한국자원공학회
- 최종근, "앙상블 칼만필터를 이용한 실시간 수공법 저류층 특성화", 한국자원공학회지, 43(2), pp.143~150 (2006), 한국자원공학회
- Pollock, D. W., "Semianalytical Computation of Path Lines for Finite-difference Models", Ground Water, 26(6), pp.743~750 (1988)
- Scheidt, C., "Representing Spatial Uncertainty Using Distances and Kernels", Mathematical Geosciences, 41(4), pp.397~419 (2009)
- Thiele, M. R., "Streamline Simulation", Proc. of the 8th International Forum on Reservoir Simulation, 20(24), pp.1~47 (2005)
- Vasco, D. W., "Integrating Dynamic Data into High-resolution Reservoir Models Using Streamline-based Analytic Sensitivity Coefficients", SPE J, 4(4), pp.389~399 (1999)
- Wu, Z., "Rapid History Matching Using a Generalized Travel Time Inversion Method", Paper SPE 66352 presented at Proc. of the SPE Reservoir Simulation Symposium (2001)