다중비선형회귀분석을 이용한 탄산염암 저류층의 CO2-EOR 효율 평가에 관한 연구
Evaluation of CO2-EOR Efficiency in Carbonate Reservoirs using Multiple Nonlinear Regression Analysis
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초록
이 연구는 탄산염암 저류층에서 석유증진회수법인 CO2-EOR(carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery)의 효율을 신속히 평가하는 사전 경제성 평가식을 도출한다. 선행 CO2-EOR 스크리닝 연구들은 저류층 물성에 기반한 순람표등을 활용하는 정성 평가에 집중하였다. 이 연구는 CO2-EOR 효율의 정량 평가를 위해 5개의 정적 물성(저류층 압력및 온도, API 비중, 공극률, R35)과 2개의 동적 물성(CO2 돌파 시간 및 회수율)을 영향인자로 선택한 후, 영향인자 값을변화시키며 저류층 시뮬레이션을 수행하여 평가식 설계를 위한 데이터베이스를 구축하였다. 평가식은 원시석유부존량과 회수율 지표의 조합으로 구성하였다. 회수율 지표는 정적인자들을 독립변수, 동적인자들을 종속변수로 설정한 후 다중비선형회귀분석을 수행하여 계산하였다. 제안한 사전 평가 시스템은 탐사 및 개발 중인 탄산염암 저류층을위한 저렴하고 효율적인 CO2-EOR 스크리닝 도구로 활용할 수 있다.
Abstract
This study aims to derive an equation for a preliminary economic evaluation that quickly assesses the efficiency of CO2-EOR at carbonate oil reservoirs. Previous works have qualitatively analyzed the CO2-EOR efficiency by, for example, using a lookup table based on reservoir properties. This study selects a series of influential parameters on the CO2-EOR efficiency: five static (e.g., reservoir pressure and temperature, API gravity, porosity, and R35) and two dynamic properties (e.g., CO2 breakthrough time and recovery factor). A database for the derivation of the equation is built by running reservoir simulation with varying values of the influential parameters. By conducting a multiple nonlinear regression analysis, the equation is designed as a combination of oil initially in place and recovery factor. The five static properties were utilized as inputs of the equation, while the dependent variables representing the outputs were obtained by merging the two dynamic properties. The proposed economic evaluation system can be utilized as an efficient CO2-EOR screening tool for carbonate reservoirs under field exploration and development.
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