인도네시아 파시르 석탄 노천광산의 사면붕괴 위험도 평가를 위한 퍼지 이론과 계층분석절차 기법의 적용
Application of Fuzzy Theory and AHP to Evaluate the Slope Instability at Pasir Open Pit Coal Mine, Indonesia
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초록
본 연구에서는 퍼지 이론과 계층분석절차 기법을 접목하여 대규모 석탄 노천광산의 상대적 사면붕괴 위험도를 평가할 수 있는 GIS 분석모델을 제시하였다. 분석모델은 7개의 영향인자들(사면의 각도, 사면높이, 지표수 영향, 굴착계획, 인장균열, 단층, 배후 저수지)을 동시에 고려하여 채굴적 연약사면의 상대적 붕괴 위험도를 평가할 수 있다. 퍼지 소속함수의 정의와 계층분석절차 기법을 이용한 가중치 결정을 통해 전문가의 판단이 모델의 인자들을 정량화하는데 반영될 수 있으며, GIS 데이터베이스를 모델과 연계하여 활용함으로써 채굴적 전체 사면들에 대한 공간적 분포 개념의 사면붕괴 위험도 평가를 가능하게 하였다. 인도네시아 파시르 석탄 노천광산의 적용결과, 제시된 분석모델이 사면관리 대책수립을 위한 예비 사면붕괴 위험도 분석 도구로서 효과적으로 활용될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.
Abstract
A GIS model that combines fuzzy theory and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed to assess the slope instability in open pit coal mines. The model logic can consider 7 factors simultaneously (i.e., overall slope gradient, slope height, surface flows, excavation plan, tension crack, fault, waterbody) that influence the instability processes of open pit slopes. Using fuzzy membership functions, the normalized factor scores (0-1) which represent adverse affects of factors on slope stability can be assigned. The weight of each factor can be determined through the Saaty’s pairwise comparisons, a part of AHP. Finally, the slope instability index (0-1) can be calculated by the weighted linear combination of normalized factor scores. The application at the Roto South in the Pasir open pit coal mine, Indonesia showed that the proposed model could make rational solutions to effectively manage the risk of slope failures.
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