Does Economic Dependence on China Affect African Countries’ Human Rights Voting in the UN? Evidence from UNGA Voting Data, 1992-2014
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China’s growing influence in Africa has become a topic of great interest in international relations. Previous studies showed that China’s economic strength affected African countries’ votes on one of China’s most serious foreign policy concerns: UN country-specific human rights (UNHR hereafter) resolutions. However, our replication of Flores-Macas and Kreps (2013) using post-2002 UNHR voting data does not support their claim. In fact, we found that a growing number of African countries have voted in favor of UNHR resolutions since 2002. To investigate this puzzle, we first identify African countries with explicit breaks in voting similarity with China between 1992 and 2014 using the Bayesian change-point analysis method (Chib 1998, Park 2010). Then, for selected countries with explicit breaks in voting similarities with China, we check the relationship between exogenous covariates that may contribute to regime changes and the specific timing of country-specific breaks. We find that political liberalization has significantly contributed to country-specific breaks of selected African countries. Our findings suggest that the diminishing influence of China’s economic power on African countries is systematically correlated with the wave of political liberalization in the 2000s.
Abstract
China’s growing influence in Africa has become a topic of great interest in international relations. Previous studies showed that China’s economic strength affected African countries’ votes on one of China’s most serious foreign policy concerns: UN country-specific human rights (UNHR hereafter) resolutions. However, our replication of Flores-Macas and Kreps (2013) using post-2002 UNHR voting data does not support their claim. In fact, we found that a growing number of African countries have voted in favor of UNHR resolutions since 2002. To investigate this puzzle, we first identify African countries with explicit breaks in voting similarity with China between 1992 and 2014 using the Bayesian change-point analysis method (Chib 1998, Park 2010). Then, for selected countries with explicit breaks in voting similarities with China, we check the relationship between exogenous covariates that may contribute to regime changes and the specific timing of country-specific breaks. We find that political liberalization has significantly contributed to country-specific breaks of selected African countries. Our findings suggest that the diminishing influence of China’s economic power on African countries is systematically correlated with the wave of political liberalization in the 2000s.
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