수도요금 현실화가 용수수요에 미치는 영향- 서울시 사례분석 -
Effects of Rational Water Pricing on Water Demand- A Case Study of Seoul -
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
수자원에 관한 이슈는 21세기 전 지구가 직면한 가장 중요한 문제 중 하나이며, 효율적인 용수 관리와 운영은 정확한 수요예측에서 출발한다. 본 논문에서는 충격-반응함수를 이용하여 용수수요 함수를 구성하는 변수들의 교란이 용수수요에 미치는 단기 파급효과를 분석하고, 오차수정모형을 통해 수도요금 현실화 시행여부에 따른 향후 수요 변화를 예측하였다. 실증분석 결과에 따르면 수도요금 인상 충격은 생활용수 수요 증가를 억제하며, 그 영향이 장기간에 걸쳐 지속적인 것으로 나타났다. 지난 수년간에 걸친 수도요금 인상으로 용수수요는 상당히 안정적인 패턴을 보이고 있으며, 더욱이 수도요금 현실화가 정부의 계획대로 진척될 경우 미래 용수수요의 급격한 증가는 없을 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
The water resource issue is one of the most significant problems everywhere in the world. The efficient operation and management of water resources require accurate water demand forecasts. The objectives of this paper are to analyze the effect of rational water pricing and to forecast the water demand by using error correction model. As the result, the impulse-response function of water price shows that a shock reduces the water demand and the effect lasts in the long run. During the years when the water price has been being raised, water demand has been found to be stable. In addition, rational water pricing turns to make water demand more stable than when the rates were not actualized.
참고문헌 (27)
- "서울시 생활용수 수요 추정", 11(1), pp.81~97 (2002)
- "상수도 수요 개발 모형" (1996), 한국환경정책연구원
- "수도사업의 국민경제적 역할분석", 30(4), pp.367~377 (1997)
- "생활용수 수요 분석", 9(2), pp.311~332 (2000)
- "서울시 상수도사용량 검침방법과 요금체계 개선연구" (2003), 서울시정개발연구원
- "물과 미래 (Water for the future)" (2003), 한국수자원공사
- "상수도통계" (2003)
- "Water Savings from Lawn Watering Restrictions During a Drought Year in Fort Collins" (1980)
- Brown, "Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time Journal of the Royal Statistical Society" (1975)
- Downs, T. J.,, "Sustainability of Least Cost Policies for Meeting Mexico City's Future Water Demand", 36, pp.2321~2339 (2000)
- Franklin, "An Evaluation of Weekly and Monthly Time Series Forecasts of Municipal Water Use" (1986)
- Graeser, "Meter Records in Systems Planning Journal of American Water Works Association" (1958)
- "The Impact of Price on Residential Water Demand and Its Relation to Systems Design" (1967)
- "Peak Period Design Standards for Small Western U" (1980)
- "Short-Term Water Demand Forecast Modelling qat IIT Kanpur Using Artificial Neural Networks", 15, pp.299~321 (2002)
- "Estimating and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models", eco(metrica) (1991)
- "Demand Forecasting for Water Distribution Systems" (1992)
- "EXPLORE-Hybrid Expert System for Water Networks Management", 126, pp.65~74 (2000)
- "Critical values for cointegration tests Readings in Cointegration" (1991), Oxford University Press
- "Monthly Water Use and its Relationship to Climatic Variables in Texas" (1984)
- "Time Patterns of Water Use in Six Texas Cities Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management" (1984)
- "Transfer Function Models of Daily Urban Water Use" (1985)
- "A Class of Time Series Urban Water Demand Models with Non-Linear Climatic Effects" (1990)
- "A Model of Daily Municipal Water Use for Short-Term Forecasting" (1988)
- "Rainfall Intervention Analysis for On-Line Applications Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management" (1989)
- "A Comparison of Water Utilities in Australia and the U Journal of American Water Works Association" (1973)
- "A Comparison of Water Utilities in Australia and the U Journal of American Water Works Association" (1973)