서울시의 기온변화와 사망자수 간의 관련성 연구
The Relationships between Temperature Changes and Mortality in Seoul, Korea
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초록
Temperature change has been shown to affect daily mortality even though different analytical methods produce different results. The effect of air pollution on the relationship between the temperature and the mortality is not large,although differences exist between temperature models. The aim of this study was to examine how the temperature change affected the daily mortality in Seoul by comparing the results from the temperature model using two study periods:one from 1994 to 2007 and the other from 1997 to 2007. Generally mean temperature, minimum temperature and Q10 temperature was derived as an optimal model, even though there are differences between age and cause of death. The analysis of threshold using total mortalities in all ages from 1994 to 2007 and from 1997 to 2007 showed that the number of the deaths increased 7.02% (95% CI: 6.06~7.98) and 2.51% (95% CI: 1.83~3.19), respectively as the mean temperature increased 1oC from a threshold temperature of 27.5oC and 25.7oC respectively. These results indicated that the temperature has less effect on the number of death than does an extreme heat wave period.
Abstract
Temperature change has been shown to affect daily mortality even though different analytical methods produce different results. The effect of air pollution on the relationship between the temperature and the mortality is not large,although differences exist between temperature models. The aim of this study was to examine how the temperature change affected the daily mortality in Seoul by comparing the results from the temperature model using two study periods:one from 1994 to 2007 and the other from 1997 to 2007. Generally mean temperature, minimum temperature and Q10 temperature was derived as an optimal model, even though there are differences between age and cause of death. The analysis of threshold using total mortalities in all ages from 1994 to 2007 and from 1997 to 2007 showed that the number of the deaths increased 7.02% (95% CI: 6.06~7.98) and 2.51% (95% CI: 1.83~3.19), respectively as the mean temperature increased 1oC from a threshold temperature of 27.5oC and 25.7oC respectively. These results indicated that the temperature has less effect on the number of death than does an extreme heat wave period.
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