피톤치드(모노테르펜) 농도 예측을 위한 회귀분석 기반 모델식 -춘천 수리봉을 중심으로-
Regression Analysis-based Model Equation Predicting the Concentration of Phytoncide (Monoterpenes) - Focusing on Suri Hill in Chuncheon -
3
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Background: Due to the emergence of new diseases such as COVID-19, an increasing number of people are struggling with stress and depression. Interest is growing in forest-based recreation for physical and mental relief. Objectives: A prediction model equation using meteorological factors and data was developed to predict the quantities of medicinal substances generated in forests (monoterpenes) in real-time. Methods: The concentration of phytoncide and meteorological factors in the forests near Chuncheon in South Korea were measured for nearly two years. Meteorological factors affecting the observation data were acquired through a multiple regression analysis. A model equation was developed by applying a linear regression equation with the main factors. Results: The linear regression analysis revealed a high explanatory power for the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity in the coniferous forest (R2=0.7028 and R2=0.5859). With a temperature increase of 1°C, the phytoncide concentration increased by 31.7 ng/Sm3. A humidity increase of 1% led to an increase in the coniferous forest by 21.9 ng/Sm3. In the deciduous forest, the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity had approximately 60% explanatory power (R2=0.6611 and R2=0.5893). A temperature increase of 1°C led to an increase of approximately 9.6 ng/Sm3, and 1% humidity resulted in a change of approximately 6.9 ng/Sm3. A prediction model equation was suggested based on such meteorological factors and related equations that showed a 30% error with statistical verification. Conclusions: Follow-up research is required to reduce the prediction error. In addition, phytoncide data for each region can be acquired by applying actual regional phytoncide data and the prediction technique proposed in this study.
Abstract
Background: Due to the emergence of new diseases such as COVID-19, an increasing number of people are struggling with stress and depression. Interest is growing in forest-based recreation for physical and mental relief. Objectives: A prediction model equation using meteorological factors and data was developed to predict the quantities of medicinal substances generated in forests (monoterpenes) in real-time. Methods: The concentration of phytoncide and meteorological factors in the forests near Chuncheon in South Korea were measured for nearly two years. Meteorological factors affecting the observation data were acquired through a multiple regression analysis. A model equation was developed by applying a linear regression equation with the main factors. Results: The linear regression analysis revealed a high explanatory power for the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity in the coniferous forest (R2=0.7028 and R2=0.5859). With a temperature increase of 1°C, the phytoncide concentration increased by 31.7 ng/Sm3. A humidity increase of 1% led to an increase in the coniferous forest by 21.9 ng/Sm3. In the deciduous forest, the coefficients of determination of temperature and humidity had approximately 60% explanatory power (R2=0.6611 and R2=0.5893). A temperature increase of 1°C led to an increase of approximately 9.6 ng/Sm3, and 1% humidity resulted in a change of approximately 6.9 ng/Sm3. A prediction model equation was suggested based on such meteorological factors and related equations that showed a 30% error with statistical verification. Conclusions: Follow-up research is required to reduce the prediction error. In addition, phytoncide data for each region can be acquired by applying actual regional phytoncide data and the prediction technique proposed in this study.
참고문헌 (30)
- 사혜지, "코로나 블루와 여가 활동 : 한국 사례를 중심으로", 인터넷정보학회논문지, 22(2), pp.109~121 (2021), 한국인터넷정보학회
- "National Mental Health Survey due to Corona 19"[URL]
- Jang DY, "COVID-19 Changed the Future of Travel No. 419" (2020), Gyeonggi Research Institute
- Korea Culture and Tourism Institute, "Survey of Domestic Travel Behavior Occurrence of COVID 19: First Quarter Result" (2021), Korea Culture and Tourism Institute
- 오세숙, "국내 여가 연구동향 분석 : 주요 학술지를 중심으로", 한국체육학회지, 52(3), pp.405~419 (2013), 한국체육학회
- Effect of Forest Healing Program and Verification, "Lee DS", Korea Forest Welfare Institute, ~, pp.Research Report 18-01 (2018)
- 정미애, "산림환경요소에 따른 인간의 심리적, 생리적 변화 연구 사례조사", 한국산림휴양학회지, 16(3), pp.13~19 (2012), 한국산림휴양복지학회[DOI]
- 박범진, "산림휴양활동을 이용한 숲치유의 실험적 접근 : 경관감상과 산책을 중심으로", 박사, 산림자원학, pp.2010
- 신원섭, "산림 방향물질이 인체 생리에 미치는 영향", 한국산림휴양학회지, 14(2), pp.85~91 (2010), 한국산림휴양복지학회
- Shin WS, "The relationships among forest experience, anxiety and depression", J Korean Inst For Recreat, 11(1), pp.27~32 (2007)
- 이용기, "산림휴양지 유형에 따른 피톤치드(모노테르펜) 농도 비교", 한국환경보건학회지, 41(4), pp.241~248 (2015), 한국환경보건학회
- 김건우, "소나무림의 기상환경 변화에 따른 NVOCs 농도예측", 한국산림휴양학회지, 21(3), pp.11~21 (2017), 한국산림휴양복지학회[DOI]
- Lerdau M, "Controls over monoterpene emissions from boreal forest conifers", Tree Physiol, 17, pp.563~569 (1997)
- 이대행, "무등산 인공 침엽수림에서 테르펜과 기상인자의 상관성분석", 한국환경과학회지, 21(10), pp.1221~1234 (2012), 한국환경과학회[DOI]
- 김병욱, "피톤치드 기상서비스 예측 모델링 적용을 위한 발생특성 및 기상인자 조사", 한국환경보건학회지, 46(6), pp.636~645 (2020), 한국환경보건학회
- 김건우, "봄철 소나무숲의 NVOC 농도와 숲환경과의 상관관계", 한국산림과학회지, 103(3), pp.483~489 (2014), 한국산림과학회[DOI]
- Park SJ, "The Concentration of Phytoncide in Pine Trees and the Characteristics of Occurrence of Microclimatic Factors" (2018), Korea Forest Research Institute
- 조예슬, "잣나무 임분밀도에 따른 피톤치드 농도 및 임내환경 특성에 관한 연구", 한국환경보건학회지, 44(3), pp.205~216 (2018), 한국환경보건학회
- McGarvey DJ, "Terpenoid metabolism", Plant Cell, 7(7), pp.1015~1026 (1995)
- Loreto F, "Emission and content of monoterpenes in intact and wounded needles of the mediterranean pine, Pinus pinea", Funct Ecol, 14(5), pp.589~595 (2000)
- Lewinsohn E, "Defense mechanisms of conifers : differences in constitutive and wound-induced monoterpene biosynthesis among species", Plant Physiol, 96(1), pp.44~49 (1991)
- Monson RK, "Biological aspects of constructing volatile organic compound emission inventories", Atmos Environ, 29(21), pp.2989~3002 (1995)
- 신기훈, "최대 절대값 기반 시계열 데이터 예측 모델 평가 기법", 에너지공학, 27(4), pp.103~110 (2018), 한국에너지학회
- 김형철, "제주지역 절물 자연휴양림 대기중 피톤치드 분포 특성연구", Journal of Naturopathy (한국자연치유학회지), 2(2), pp.89~98 (2013), 한국자연치유학회
- 손윤석, "국내 주요 수종에서 배출되는 자연적 휘발성유기화합물의 배출특성 고찰", 한국대기환경학회지, 37(5), pp.695~709 (2021), 한국대기환경학회
- 정상욱, "계절성과 온도를 고려한 일별 최대 전력 수요 예측연구", 응용통계연구, 27(5), pp.843~853 (2014), 한국통계학회
- 손흥구, "관광 수요를 위한 결합 예측 모형에 대한 연구", 응용통계연구, 25(2), pp.251~259 (2012), 한국통계학회[DOI]
- Ryu IG, "A Comprehensive Study on Water Quality Control of Paldang Watershed(III)" (2017), National Institute of Environmental Research
- 하림, "MODIS LAI (엽면적지수) Product의 활용성 평가", 한국지리정보학회지, 11(2), pp.61~72 (2008), 한국지리정보학회
- 박지훈, "MODIS 위성자료에 기반한 식물 순생산량 알고리즘 분석", 석사, ?, pp.2005