예방외교와 국제평화: 동티모르 사태의 분쟁해결 과정을 중심으로

Abstract

The process of independence in East Timor presents a case where the theoretical hypotheses of preventive diplomacy are not easily applicable. This research aims to point out the theoretical limitations of implementing preventive diplomacy in practice, and evaluates the hypotheses presented in the existing theoretical arguments. The most important lesson is on the identification of preventive diplomacy, that is, identifying what measures are taken as preventive diplomacy and what moment presents the right timing for intervention. When disputes exacerbate to higher levels of violence in an incremental manner, it is impossible to measure the seriousness of the conflict in process. A more critical problem is that we cannot tell whether the conflict is at an early stage or at a later stage of the conflict cycle. Considering this question, diplomatic intervention should be applied to the stage of unstable peace both at the ascending and at the descending stages in the life cycle of a conflict. Given this, the UN PKO may present an institutionalized and effective criteria of observation as a measure of preventive diplomacy.