Evaluating treatment response thresholds for cost-effective treatment in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease

Abstract

Background/Aims: The first metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) drug was approved with an unsatisfactorily small effect size. This study aimed to determine key factors impacting the cost-effectiveness of a new hypothetical MASLD drug as well as its treatment efficacy. Methods: A Markov model reflecting the natural history of MASLD was developed, incorporating fibrosis progression, cardiovascular disease risk, and mortality. Treatment effect of drug X (with $20,000 of annual cost) was assumed to achieve a ≥1 stage fibrosis regression, with a 25% gap of effect size in regression rate over non-treatment in the first year. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 20-year horizon was estimated. And sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainty and identify influential factors. Results: In the base case analysis, drug X provided an incremental gain of 1.32 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and 1.20 life years compared to the non-treatment, with an ICER of $68,010/QALY–below the $100,000/QALY willingness to-pay threshold, indicating that drug X treatment is cost-effective. Two-way sensitivity analysis further highlighted that the drug should achieve at least a 15% initial regression gap and maintain a minimum 3% sustained durability gap to remain cost-effective. In addition baseline fibrosis stage distribution also acted as an influencing factor. Conclusions: Long-term sustained durability of the hypothetical drug, patient distribution based on baseline fibrosis stage, as well as initial treatment response rate are key factors that influence the cost-effectiveness of new MASLD drugs.