인공신경망을 이용한 케미컬 탱커 운임예측
Forecasting Chemical Tanker Freight Rate with ANN
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초록
본 논문은 케미컬 탱커시장의 운임예측에 관하여 인공신경망을 적용하였으며 전통적인 시계열모델인 ARIMA모형과 비교하였다. 케미컬 시장의 경우 상대적으로 소규모이나 범용성이 높은 선박을 이용한 시장으로 수급모델을 활용하여 운임시장을 분석하기 어려우며, 운임의 변동성이 크기 때문에 선형모형을 활용하는데는 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 케미컬 시장의 특성을 고려하여 비선형 모델인 인공신경망을 이용하여 ARIMA와 비교한 결과 RMSE와 Correlation 측면에서 예측성능이 우수함을 보였으며, 케미컬 탱커의 운임예측에 더 적합함을 보였다. 본 연구는 운임거래에있어 과학적 모델을 제시함으로써 의사결정의 질을 제고하는데 기여할 뿐만 아니라 학문적으로소외되어온 케미컬 시장 연구에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
In this paper, we propose an efficient dynamic workload balancing strategy which improves the performance of high-performance computing system. The key idea of this dynamic workload balancing strategy is to minimize execution time of each job and to maximize the system throughput by effectively using system resource such as CPU, memory. Also, this strategy dynamically allocates job by considering demanded memory size of executing job and workload status of each node. If an overload node occurs due to allocated job, the proposed scheme migrates job, executing in overload nodes, to another free nodes and reduces the waiting time and execution time of job by balancing workload of each node. Through simulation, we show that the proposed dynamic workload balancing strategy based on CPU, memory improves the performance of high-performance computing system compared to previous strategies.
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