실질이익조정과 발생액이익조정이 회계이익 및 주식수익률에 미치는 영향
The Effect of Real Earnings Management and Accrual Earnings Management for Accounting Earnings and Security Returns
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초록
이익조정은 경영자가 의도하는 목표달성을 위해 정상적인 회계처리 또는 정상적인 기업활동에서 이탈하는 결과를 유발하기 때문에 그 후유증이 따를 수밖에 없다. 이러한 후유증을 감수하고라도 이익조정을 하는 이유는 당기에 당면한 문제를 해결하고자 하는 것인데 과연 당면한 문제가 해결되고 있는가에 대해서도 확인할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 이익조정의 수단을 확인하고, 이 확인된 수단이 당기주식수익률, 차기경영성과 그리고 차기주식수익률에 미치는 영향을 종합적으로 검증하였다. 먼저 이익조정변수가 손실회피목적으로 이용되고 있는가를 검증한 결과 영업연금흐름과 발생액이 손실회피목적의 이익조정 도구로 활용되고 있음이 확인되었다. 당기 및 차기의 이익조정의 영향을 검증하는 방법은 이익조정을 해서 손실회피를 가까스로 달성한 그룹과 이익조정을 하지 않아 손실회피에 약간 미달한 그룹을 비교하였다. 손실회피에 약간 미달한 비이익조정그룹에 포함된 기업이 이익조정을 하여 손실회피 목적을 달성하였다면 당해 기업은 손실회피를 가까스로 달성한 이익조정그룹에 포함될 것이기 때문에 두 그룹을 비교하는 것은 이익조정의 영향을 측정하는데 매우 유의적인 방법이라고 판단된다. 검증결과 당기주식수익률에 미치는 영향은 발생액을 이용한 이익조정만이 경영자가 의도한대로 주식수익률이 높았을 뿐, 영업현금흐름은 유의적인 영향을 미치지 못했다. 차기경영성과에 미치는 영향검증에서는 영업현금흐름과 발생액 모두 유의적인 영향을 미치지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 차기수익률에 미치는 영향은 영업현금흐름만이 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 이익조정의심구간을 확대한 추가분석결과 이익조정의 수단은 기본분석과 마찬가지로 영업현금흐름과 발생액이 이용되고 있음을 확인하였으며, 다음으로 당기주식수익률에 미치는 영향은 모두 가설이 지지되지 않았다. 차기경영성과에 미치는 영향은 영업현금흐름만이 부정적으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 차기주식수익률에 미치는 영향은 발생액만이 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper tests the overall phenomenon related to the earnings management which includes accrual and real earnings management. In detail, this paper identifies earnings management devices and based on those identified devices, tests their effects on current stock returns, future accounting earnings, and future stock returns. Earnings management is often conducted to avoid losses and those firms whose return on assets falls between 0 and 0.01 are usually suspected of having conducted earnings management. The test shows that the cash flow from operation and accrual has two devices used for earnings management. The effect on current and future accounting earnings and stock returns is tested being compared between the group of companies which have barely made profits through earnings management and the other group of companies which have not made any earnings management and thus have recorded loss. Earnings management through accrual device have positive effect on current stock return while having no effect on future stock returns and future accounting earnings. Earnings management through cash flow from operation device has no effect on current stock return and future accounting earnings, having negative effect on future stock return. Thus, in overall, earnings management is conducted through accrual adjustment to increase current stock return, but this actually lowers future accounting earnings and future stock profit because of the side effects of earnings management.
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