Development of a deep learning model for predicting critical events in a pediatric intensive care unit
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Background: Identifying critically ill patients at risk of cardiac arrest is important because it offers the opportunity for early intervention and increased survival. The aim of this study was to develop a deep learning model to predict critical events, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation or mortality.Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary university hospital. All patients younger than 18 years who were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2010 to May 2023 were included. The main outcome was prediction performance of the deep learning model at forecasting critical events. Long short-term memory was used as a deep learning algorithm. The five-fold cross validation method was employed for model learning and testing.Results: Among the vital sign measurements collected during the study period, 11,660 measurements were used to develop the model after preprocessing; 1,060 of these data points were measurements that corresponded to critical events. The prediction performance of the model was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.988 (0.975–1.000), and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.862 (0.700–1.000).Conclusions: The performance of the developed model at predicting critical events was excellent. However, follow-up research is needed for external validation.
Abstract
Background: Identifying critically ill patients at risk of cardiac arrest is important because it offers the opportunity for early intervention and increased survival. The aim of this study was to develop a deep learning model to predict critical events, such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation or mortality.Methods: This retrospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary university hospital. All patients younger than 18 years who were admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2010 to May 2023 were included. The main outcome was prediction performance of the deep learning model at forecasting critical events. Long short-term memory was used as a deep learning algorithm. The five-fold cross validation method was employed for model learning and testing.Results: Among the vital sign measurements collected during the study period, 11,660 measurements were used to develop the model after preprocessing; 1,060 of these data points were measurements that corresponded to critical events. The prediction performance of the model was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.988 (0.975–1.000), and the area under the precision-recall curve was 0.862 (0.700–1.000).Conclusions: The performance of the developed model at predicting critical events was excellent. However, follow-up research is needed for external validation.
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