역대 한국선거(1987-2006) 투표율 분석
Analysis of Turnout of Korean Past Elections (1987-2006)
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초록
본 연구는 종래의 투표율 연구가 1회 혹은 2-3회 정도의 단기간 선거에 국한하여 투표율 하락의 정확한 원인 파악이 어려웠던 한계를 극복하기 위하여 노력하였다. 이를 위해 지난 20년에 걸친 총 14회의 대통령·국회의원·지방 선거에서 나타난 투표율을 종적으로 분석하면서, 16개 광역시도에 대한 횡적분석을 횡단시계열분석방법을 이용하여 동시에 수행하였다. 민주화 직후인 1980년대 말부터 1990년대 중반까지의 한국경제는 수출의 호조에 힘입어 최호황의 시절도 있었으나, 극심한 노사갈등을 경험하였다. 1990년대 중반 이후에는 미증유의 IMF 사태를 겪으며 구조조정과 공장의 해외이전, 사무자동화 등으로 실업률이 상승하고 물가가 인상되는 등 경제 불안이 가중되었다. 이에 따라 투표율에 미치는 요인도 도저촌고 현상이나 지역주의, 선거 경쟁률 등 정치적인 요인의 효과는 없거나 매우 미약하게 조사되었다. 그러나 실업률이 인상되거나 소비자물가가 인상될수록 투표율이 하락하는 경향이, 또 고용율이 증가하는 경우에는 투표율도 동반 상승하는 경향은 매우 뚜렷하였다. 따라서 우리나라 선거의 투표율을 향상시키기 위해서는 선관위에서 추진하고 있는 투표자우대제도와 같은 일시적인 미봉책으로는 불가능하며 경제회복에 보다 치중하여야 한다.
Abstract
Korea has marked falling tendency of turnout recently. This study scrutinized turnout of all the last Korean elections including presidential, general and local ones held past 20 years finding out its reasons of decreasing trend. The study employed cross-sectional time-series analysis, composed of 14 elections longitudinally and of 16 cities and provinces horizontally. Although South Korea experienced economic boom due to export growth between late 1980s and the middle of 1990s, the nation suffered the International Monetary Fund's rescue late 1990s. Once-strong Korean economy was damaged by economic slowdown and uncertainties such as structural adjustments, nationwide conflicts between labor and management, transference of companies overseas and office automation, leading to increasing unemployment and consumer products. Accordingly such political factors as lower turnout among voters living in the cities and higher turnout among ones living in the countries, regionalism, level of electoral competition were found not to be significant in affecting turnout. Yet economic ones were constraints. Higher unemployment or consumer price index prompted to lower turnout while higher employment increased turnout rate. Thus in order to expand Korean turnout rate, complimentary system that would benefit voters would resolve Korean turnout problems. It should be the economic recovery that will serve the interest of turnout in the mid and longer terms.
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