Competition in the Disguise of Partnership: Structural Analysis on China-Russia Relations
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This paper examines China-Russia relations as of the mid-2020s. It first reviews the existing literature on China-Russia relations and clarifies their limitations. Next, it explores the conditions that differentiate a “long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership,” which is indicative of “an enduring alliance,” from an “unstable, temporary, and essentially distrusting partnership,” which represents “a competitive coalition.” As for the case study, it investigates China-Russia relations across three key domains (i.e., historical development, economic connections, and military relations) to determine whether they meet the criteria for an enduring alliance, as often argued in previous research. The following analysis reveals that although the two countries appear to form increasingly closer ties in the face of a common threat (i.e., the U.S), they do not fully satisfy the conditions necessary for a long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership. Instead, their relationship is largely characterized by instability, temporariness, and fundamental distrust. Consequently, it concludes that contemporary China-Russia relations are better described as “competitive coalition,” rather than as an enduring alliance.
Abstract
This paper examines China-Russia relations as of the mid-2020s. It first reviews the existing literature on China-Russia relations and clarifies their limitations. Next, it explores the conditions that differentiate a “long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership,” which is indicative of “an enduring alliance,” from an “unstable, temporary, and essentially distrusting partnership,” which represents “a competitive coalition.” As for the case study, it investigates China-Russia relations across three key domains (i.e., historical development, economic connections, and military relations) to determine whether they meet the criteria for an enduring alliance, as often argued in previous research. The following analysis reveals that although the two countries appear to form increasingly closer ties in the face of a common threat (i.e., the U.S), they do not fully satisfy the conditions necessary for a long-term, trustworthy, and strong interstate partnership. Instead, their relationship is largely characterized by instability, temporariness, and fundamental distrust. Consequently, it concludes that contemporary China-Russia relations are better described as “competitive coalition,” rather than as an enduring alliance.