MyRisk_Stroke Calculator: A Personalized Stroke Risk Assessment Tool for the General Population
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Background and Purpose There is a variety of stroke risk factors, and engaging individualsin reducing their own personal risk is hugely relevant and could be an optimal disseminationstrategy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the stroke risk for specific combinationsof health- and lifestyle-related factors, and to develop a personalized stroke-risk assessmenttool for health professionals and the general population (called the MyRisk_Stroke Calculator). Methods This population-based, longitudinal study followed a historical cohort formed fromthe 1992 or 1998 Santé Québec Health Surveys with information for linkage to health administrative databases. Stroke risk factors were ascertained at the time of survey, and stroke was determined from hospitalizations and death records. Cox proportional hazards models were used,modeling time to stroke in relationship to all variables. Results A total of 358 strokes occurred among a cohort of 17805 persons (men=8181) whowere followed for approximately 11 years (i.e., –200000 person-years). The following regressionparameters were used to produce 10-year stroke-risk estimates and assign risk points: for age (1point/year after age 20 years), male sex (3 points), low education (4 points), renal disease (8points), diabetes (7 points), congestive heart failure (5 points), peripheral arterial disease (2points), high blood pressure (2 points), ischemic heart disease (1 point), smoking (8 points), >7alcoholic drinks per week (3 points), low physical activity (2 points), and indicators of anger (4points), depression (4 points), and anxiety (3 points). According to MyRisk_Stroke Calculator, aperson with <50, 75, and 90 risk points has a 10-year stroke risk of <3%, 28%, and >75%, respectively. Conclusions The MyRisk_Stroke Calculator is a simple method of disseminating information to the general population about their stroke risk.
Abstract
Background and Purpose There is a variety of stroke risk factors, and engaging individualsin reducing their own personal risk is hugely relevant and could be an optimal disseminationstrategy. The aim of the present study was to estimate the stroke risk for specific combinationsof health- and lifestyle-related factors, and to develop a personalized stroke-risk assessmenttool for health professionals and the general population (called the MyRisk_Stroke Calculator). Methods This population-based, longitudinal study followed a historical cohort formed fromthe 1992 or 1998 Santé Québec Health Surveys with information for linkage to health administrative databases. Stroke risk factors were ascertained at the time of survey, and stroke was determined from hospitalizations and death records. Cox proportional hazards models were used,modeling time to stroke in relationship to all variables. Results A total of 358 strokes occurred among a cohort of 17805 persons (men=8181) whowere followed for approximately 11 years (i.e., –200000 person-years). The following regressionparameters were used to produce 10-year stroke-risk estimates and assign risk points: for age (1point/year after age 20 years), male sex (3 points), low education (4 points), renal disease (8points), diabetes (7 points), congestive heart failure (5 points), peripheral arterial disease (2points), high blood pressure (2 points), ischemic heart disease (1 point), smoking (8 points), >7alcoholic drinks per week (3 points), low physical activity (2 points), and indicators of anger (4points), depression (4 points), and anxiety (3 points). According to MyRisk_Stroke Calculator, aperson with <50, 75, and 90 risk points has a 10-year stroke risk of <3%, 28%, and >75%, respectively. Conclusions The MyRisk_Stroke Calculator is a simple method of disseminating information to the general population about their stroke risk.
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