Estimating potential range shift of some wild bees in response to climate change scenarios in northwestern regions of Iran
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.
Abstract
Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.
참고문헌 (61)
- Barbet-Massin M, "Selecting pseudo-absences for species distribution models : how, where and how many", Methods Ecol Evol, 3(2), pp.327~338 (2012)
- Bezerra ADM, "Agricultural area losses and pollinator mismatch due to climate changes endanger passion fruit production in the Neotropics", Agric Syst, 169, pp.49~57 (2019)
- Bradter U, "Identifying appropriate spatial scales of predictors in species distribution models with the random forest algorithm", Methods Ecol Evol, 4(2), pp.167~174 (2013)
- Carrasco L, "Potential regional declines in species richness of tomato pollinators in North America under climate change", Ecol Appl, pp.e02259~ (2020)
- Celary W, "Biology of the solitary ground-nesting bee Melitta leporina(Panzer, 1799)(Hymenoptera : Apoidea : Melittidae)", J Kansas Entomol Soc, 79(2), pp.136~145 (2006)
- Challinor AJ, "Crops and climate change : progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation", J Exp Bot, 60(10), pp.2775~2789 (2009)
- Christmann S, "Farming with alternative pollinators(FAP)—an overlooked win-win-strategy for climate change adaptation", Agric Ecosyst Environ, 161, pp.161~164 (2012)
- Coope G., "Insect faunas in ice age environments: why so little extinction", Extinction rates, pp.55~74 (1995)
- Cushman SA, "Machine Learning for Ecology and Sustainable Natural Resource Management", pp.185~203 (2018), Springer
- Deutsch CA, "Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude", Proc Natl Acad Sci, 105(18), pp.6668~6672 (2008)
- Dew RM, "Range expansion of an already widespread bee under climate change", Global Ecology and Conservation, 17, pp.e00584~ (2019)
- Dikmen F, "Notes on the Halictus Latreille(Hymenoptera : Halictidae)fauna of Turkey", Turkish Journal of Zoology, 35(4), pp.537~550 (2011)
- Dormann CF, "Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity", Ecol Lett, 11(3), pp.235~244 (2008)
- Elith J, "Species distribution models : ecological explanation and prediction across space and time", Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst, 40, pp.677~697 (2009)
- Elith J, "A working guide to boosted regression trees", J Anim Ecol, 77(4), pp.802~813 (2008)
- Fernández M, "Characterizing uncertainty in species distribution models derived from interpolated weather station data", Ecosphere, 4(5), pp.1~17 (2013)
- Giannini TC, "Pollination services at risk : bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil", Ecol Model, 244, pp.127~131 (2012)
- Giannini TC, "Protecting a managed bee pollinator against climate change : strategies for an area with extreme climatic conditions and socioeconomic vulnerability", Apidologie, 48(6), pp.784~794 (2017)
- Giannini TC, "Climate change in the Eastern Amazon : crop-pollinator and occurrencerestricted bees are potentially more affected", Reg Environ Chang, 20(1), pp.1~12 (2020)
- Guisan A, "Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions : setting the scene", Ecol Model, 157(2-3), pp.89~100 (2002)
- Güler Y, "Megachile maritima(KIRBY)ve Icteranthidium cimbiciforme(SMITH)(Hymenoptera : Megachilidae)Türleri Üzerinde Entomopalinolojik Bir Çalışma", Uludağ Arıcılık Dergisi, 8(1), pp.30~35 (2008)
- Hegland SJ, "How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions", Ecol Lett, 12(2), pp.184~195 (2009)
- Imbach P, "Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change", Proc Natl Acad Sci, 114(39), pp.10438~10442 (2017)
- Jafarian Z, "Which spatial distribution model best predicts the occurrence of dominant species in semi-arid rangeland of northern Iran", Ecological Informatics, 50, pp.33~42 (2019)
- Karlík P, "Soil seed-bank composition reveals the land-use history of calcareous grasslands", Acta Oecol, 58, pp.22~34 (2014)
- Kerr JT, "Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents", Science, 349(6244), pp.177~180 (2015)
- Potential effects of climate change on crop pollination, "Kjøhl M", Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), ~ (2011)
- Klein A-M, "Importance of pollinators in changing landscapes for world crops", Proc R Soc B Biol Sci, 274(1608), pp.303~313 (2007)
- Kosicki JZ, "Generalised additive models and random forest approach as effective methods for predictive species density and functional species richness", Environ Ecol Stat, 27(2), pp.273~292 (2020)
- Memmott J, "Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions", Ecol Lett, 10(8), pp.710~717 (2007)
- Milano NJ, "Comparative survival and fitness of bumblebee colonies in natural, suburban, and agricultural landscapes", Agric Ecosyst Environ, 284, pp.106594~ (2019)
- Miller J, "Species distribution modeling", Geogr Compass, 4(6), pp.490~509 (2010)
- Mohammadian H, "Bees of Iran", pp.86~ (2003), Khatam
- Naimi B, "Package ‘sdm’", ~ (2016)
- Ollerton J, "How many flowering plants are pollinated by animals", Oikos, 120(3), pp.321~326 (2011)
- Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Pachauri RK", Ipcc, ~ (2014)
- Ploquin EF, "Bumblebee community homogenization after uphill shifts in montane areas of northern Spain", Oecologia, 173(4), pp.1649~1660 (2013)
- Polce C, "Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators : increased risks of pollination deficits", Glob Chang Biol, 20(9), pp.2815~2828 (2014)
- Pyke GH, "Effects of climate change on phenologies and distributions of bumblebees and the plants they visit", Ecosphere, 7(3), pp.e01267~ (2016)
- Rader R, "Native bees buffer the negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops", Glob Chang Biol, 19(10), pp.3103~3110 (2013)
- Rafferty NE, "Effects of global change on insect pollinators : multiple drivers lead to novel communities", Current Opinion in Insect Science, 23, pp.22~27 (2017)
- Rahimi A, "Evaluation of morphological characteristics of honey bee Apis mellifera meda(Hymenoptera : Apidae)in Mazandaran(North of Iran)", Tech J Eng Appl Sci, 3(13), pp.1280~1284 (2013)
- Rather TA, "Multi-scale habitat selection and impacts of climate change on the distribution of four sympatric meso-carnivores using random forest algorithm", Ecol Process, 9(1), pp.1~17 (2020)
- Renner IW, "Point process models for presence-only analysis", Methods Ecol Evol, 6(4), pp.366~379 (2015)
- Samin N, "A faunistic study on leafcutting bees(Hymenoptera : Apoidea : Megachilidae)from some regions of Iran", Arquivos Entomolóxicos, 14, pp.193~200 (2015)
- Sanjerehei MM, "The economic value of bees as pollinators of crops in Iran", Annu Res Rev Biol, pp.2957~2964 (2014)
- Scaven VL, "Physiological effects of climate warming on flowering plants and insect pollinators and potential consequences for their interactions", Current zoology, 59(3), pp.418~426 (2013)
- Schweiger O, "Multiple stressors on biotic interactions : how climate change and alien species interact to affect pollination", Biol Rev, 85(4), pp.777~795 (2010)
- Sirois-Delisle C, "Climate change-driven range losses among bumblebee species are poised to accelerate", Sci Rep, 8(1), pp.1~10 (2018)
- Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of IPCC the intergovernmental panel on climate change, "Stocker TF", ~ (2014)
- Strobl C, "Bias in random forest variable importance measures : illustrations, sources, and a solution", BMC bioinformatics, 8(1), pp.1~21 (2007)
- Suzuki-Ohno Y, "Estimating possible bumblebee range shifts in response to climate and land cover changes", Sci Rep, 10(1), pp.1~12 (2020)
- Takkis K, "Differential effects of climate warming on the nectar secretion of early-and late-flowering Mediterranean plants", Front Plant Sci, 9, pp.874~ (2018)
- Talebi KS, "A Treasure From the Past, a Hope for the Future" (2014), Springer
- Tarkesh M, "Comparison of six correlative models in predictive vegetation mapping on a local scale", Environ Ecol Stat, 19(3), pp.437~457 (2012)
- Valavi R, "Modelling species presenceonly data with random forests" (2020), bioRxiv
- Viana BF, "How well do we understand landscape effects on pollinators and pollination services?", J Pollination Ecol, pp.7~ (2012)
- Williams PH, "Can vulnerability among British bumblebee (Bombus) species be explained by niche position and breadth?", Biol Conserv, 138(3-4), pp.493~505 (2007)
- Wirtz P, "Phenology of two territorial solitary bees, Anthidium manicatum and A. florentinum (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae)", J Zool, 228(4), pp.641~651 (1992)
- Yurk BP, "Modeling the evolution of insect phenology", Bull Math Biol, 71(4), pp.952~979 (2009)
- Zurell D, "A standard protocol for reporting species distribution models", Ecography, 43(9), pp.1261~1277 (2020)