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Analysis on the Trade-off between an Hydro-power Project and Other Alternatives in Myanmar

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Myanmar’s current power situation remains severely constrained despite being richly endowed in primary energy sources. With low levels of electrification, the demand for power is not adequately met. Cooperation in energy has been a major focus of future initiative for all developed and developing nations. If we want to solve climate change, and change our energy infrastructure, we need to be innovative and entre-preneurial in energy generation. This paper will help us in examining Bayesian MCMC Analysis for the parameters estimation among the arrival rates of disaster occurrences, firm’s expected income-based electricity tariffs, and estimated R&D investment expenses in new energy industry. Focusing on Japan’s electric power business, we would like to search the potential for innovative initiatives in new technological energy industry for the regional development and ecological sustainability in Myanmar.

Abstract

Myanmar’s current power situation remains severely constrained despite being richly endowed in primary energy sources. With low levels of electrification, the demand for power is not adequately met. Cooperation in energy has been a major focus of future initiative for all developed and developing nations. If we want to solve climate change, and change our energy infrastructure, we need to be innovative and entre-preneurial in energy generation. This paper will help us in examining Bayesian MCMC Analysis for the parameters estimation among the arrival rates of disaster occurrences, firm’s expected income-based electricity tariffs, and estimated R&D investment expenses in new energy industry. Focusing on Japan’s electric power business, we would like to search the potential for innovative initiatives in new technological energy industry for the regional development and ecological sustainability in Myanmar.

참고문헌 (22)

  1. Aung, U.H., "Current status of Myanmar’s energy statistics", workshop on energy statistics for ASEAN countries (2017)
  2. David, B.D., "Commentary: practical advantages of Bayesian analysis of epidemiologic data", American Journal of Epidemiology, 153(12), pp.1222~1226 (2001)
  3. Davidson-Pilon, C., "Bayesian Method for Hackers: Probabilistic Programming and Bayesian Inference" (2016), Addison Wesley
  4. Fujiwara, T., "Bayesian MCMC analysis on R&D investment of biotech start-up in the “Valley of Death”", Technology Transfer and Entrepreneurship, 3(2), pp.119~130 (2016)
  5. Final Report Summary for Data Collection Survey on Capacity Development of Power Sector Development Planning in The Republic of The Union of Myanmar, "JICA", ~ (2015)
  6. Kodukula, P., "Project Valuation Using Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide" (2006), J. Ross Publishing
  7. Nyein, N.A., "A Study on the Irreversible Investment for a New Energy Industry in Myanmar Under Uncertainty and Competition: Focused on Potential of Smart House", Master, pp.2013
  8. Nyein, N.A., "Application of option-games approach to the irreversible investment for a new energy industry in Myanmar by simple one-stage strategic model: focused on potential of smart house", Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, 15(3), pp.191~202 (2014)
  9. Schwartz, E.S., "Real Options and Investment Under Uncertainty" (2001), The MIT Press

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