양식어류의 가격변동성 특징 분석

Abstract

Recently, the price volatility of farmed fish is increasing due to supply and demand factors such as a decrease in eating out after COVID-19 and a backlog of fish shipping. The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of the change and volatility of farmed fish prices and to suggest policy implications. The producer price volatility of olive flounder and rockfish, which are industrially the most important in domestic fish farming, was analyzed through indicators such as coefficient of variation, average percentage change, and amplitude rate. In addition to diagnosing seasonality, the frequency of drastic price changes was identified and explained in consideration of a series of aquaculture processes such as stocking and shipping. Through the GARCH model, whether there are variability clustering phenomenons was identified. For the empirical analysis, the statistics on producer prices for olive flounder and rockfish provided by the Fisheries Outlook Center were used. The main results and implications are as follows. First, an important issue that the price of farmed fish has not increased in a trend over time was raised. Considering that production cost has been continuously rising from the past to the present, it suggests that not only the profitability of individual fish farms but also the level of added value creation of the industry have been continuously deteriorating. Therefore, it shows that measures to increase producers' price must be prepared by strengthening the bargaining power of producers and improving the efficiency of the distribution structure. Second, the price volatility of farmed fish has recently increased. In order to reduce price volatility, we suggested the need to upgrade the outlook project along with the total management of stocking and shipping by region through the organization of producer groups. Third, the importance of the role of the Supply and Demand Control Committee, which has decision-making authority for supply and demand stabilization, was emphasized through the analysis of seasonality and monthly fluctuations in farmed fish prices. Lastly, it is suggested that production cost investigation and nationally approved statistics are necessary to diagnose the management status of major farmed fish.