광역시의 인구감소에 따른 유형화와 특성 분석

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the typology and characteristics of population decline in metropolitan cities in South Korea, focusing on the housing market and regional factors. Using data from 2015 to 2024, we selected 25 variables across three domains—population and social characteristics, industrial and economic characteristics, and physical and environmental characteristics—for 49 administrative districts in six metropolitan cities. Factor analysis was performed to extract five characteristic factors, which were then used as independent variables in K-means cluster analysis to classify the regions into three distinct clusters. The results revealed that metropolitan cities are divided into three types: (1) regions with high aging and economic vulnerability, (2) regions experiencing severe population decline and urban decay, and (3) regions with active population growth and economic vitality. Each cluster exhibited significant differences in demographic, economic, and housing indicators. The findings suggest that a one-size-fits-all policy approach is insufficient to address population decline in metropolitan cities. Instead, customized policy measures tailored to the specific characteristics of each cluster are necessary to ensure sustainable urban development. These findings offer a practical foundation for differentiated and spatially adaptive population decline response strategies across metropolitan regions.