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PRICING FORWARD-FUTURES SPREAD BASED ON COPULAS WITH STOCHASTIC SIMULATION

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This paper focuses on computational contractual distinctions as an ex-planation for the spread between a forward contract and a similar futures contractwhich is derived and investigated. We evaluate this spread by constructing a timeseries model, which was established based on copula functions, and also show thatthe forward-futures spread is more signi¯cant for long maturity.

Abstract

This paper focuses on computational contractual distinctions as an ex-planation for the spread between a forward contract and a similar futures contractwhich is derived and investigated. We evaluate this spread by constructing a timeseries model, which was established based on copula functions, and also show thatthe forward-futures spread is more signi¯cant for long maturity.

참고문헌 (12)

  1. Chen, X, "Estimation of Copula-Based Semi-parametric Time Series Model", Journal of Econometrics, 130, pp.307~335 (2006)
  2. Cox, J.C, "Ingersoll Jr, J.E. & Ross, S.A.: The relation between forward prices and futures prices", Journal of Financial Economics, 9(4), pp.321~346 (1981)
  3. Fredricks, G.A, "On the relationship between Spearman's rho and Kendall's tau for pairs of continuous random variables", Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 137(7), pp.2143~2150 (2007)
  4. Genest, C, "Statistical inference procedures for bivariate Archimedean copulas", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88(423), pp.1034~1043 (1993)
  5. Grinblatt, M., "Relative pricing of Eurodollar futures and forward contracts", The Journal of Finance, 51(4), pp.1499~1522 (1996)
  6. J.C. Hull, "Options, Futures and Other Derivatives" (2008), Prentice Hall
  7. Kendall, M.G., "A new measure of rank correlation", Biometrika, 30(1-2), pp.81~93 (1938)
  8. Murawski, C., "On the Forward-Futures Spread and Default Risk", SSRN 389281, ~ (2003)
  9. Nelsen, R.B, "An Introduction to Copulas" (2005), Springer
  10. Pumi, G, "Simulation of Univariate Time Series Using Copulas", Preprint
  11. Schmidt, T, "Coping with copulas. Chapter forthcoming in Risk Books: Copulas-from theory to applications in finance" (2006)
  12. Shreve, S.E, "Stochastic Calculus for Finance II - Continuous-Time Models" (2004), Springer

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