시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 중 · 저준위 방사성폐기물 처분량예측 모델에 관한 연구
A Study on the Prediction Model of Disposal Amount of Low and Intermediate Level Radioactive Waste Using System Dynamics Modeling
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초록
Gyeongju radioactive waste repository is a complex disposal facility planned to dispose ofup to 800,000 drums of very low, low and intermediate level radioactive waste in Korea. This complexdisposal facility are composed of several different types of disposal facilities. In order to operate disposalfacility efficiently, it is necessary to establish a disposal plan considering the amount of radioactivewaste diposal. The amount of radioactive waste disposal can be predicted by analyzing the correlationbetween the amount of radioactive waste generated, temporary storage and disposal capacity. Thesystem dynamics modeling is one of suitable tools for correlation analyze and it is specialized in modelingof time dependent material flow. The research procedure was determined through the analysis ofpreceding studies about the prediction of the amount of radioactive waste disposal, and a predictionmodel for disposal amount of low and intermediate level waste was designed. As a result of predictivemodeling, it was predicted that the generation of radioactive waste would reach 742,064 drums at 2095and the optimized annual disposal amount would reach should be 12,436 drums. In addition, throughscenario analysis about nuclear power plant operation, it wast found that additional nuclear powerplant construction increases annual disposal amount, whereas extending nuclear power plant lifetimedecreases annual disposal amount.
Abstract
Gyeongju radioactive waste repository is a complex disposal facility planned to dispose ofup to 800,000 drums of very low, low and intermediate level radioactive waste in Korea. This complexdisposal facility are composed of several different types of disposal facilities. In order to operate disposalfacility efficiently, it is necessary to establish a disposal plan considering the amount of radioactivewaste diposal. The amount of radioactive waste disposal can be predicted by analyzing the correlationbetween the amount of radioactive waste generated, temporary storage and disposal capacity. Thesystem dynamics modeling is one of suitable tools for correlation analyze and it is specialized in modelingof time dependent material flow. The research procedure was determined through the analysis ofpreceding studies about the prediction of the amount of radioactive waste disposal, and a predictionmodel for disposal amount of low and intermediate level waste was designed. As a result of predictivemodeling, it was predicted that the generation of radioactive waste would reach 742,064 drums at 2095and the optimized annual disposal amount would reach should be 12,436 drums. In addition, throughscenario analysis about nuclear power plant operation, it wast found that additional nuclear powerplant construction increases annual disposal amount, whereas extending nuclear power plant lifetimedecreases annual disposal amount.
참고문헌 (13)
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